China – the trade surplus, the CNY and autos

In the context of the region, the fact that China's capital goods exports are rising really isn't a surprise. Where China does stand out is that this export transition is being accompanied by 1) a rise – indeed an acceleration – in overall export market share, and 2) a slowing of imports. While some of this is due to industrial policy, I think another important driver is the cheapness of the CNY, which the latest BIS data overnight show in real terms is now almost 20% lower than early 2022, and the cheapest since 2012. Subscribers can read more about these issues in this note from June.

On a related subject, this is a dashboard I – well, my data and ChatGPT – have built where you can track in detail the geographical progress of China's auto exports. I have plans to add more data – let me know if there are additions you would like to see.