Taiwan's price data still don't suggest the economy is overheating. But pipeline pressure is strong, computer prices are surging, indirect energy prices can't be easily controlled by policy, and underlying inflation still looks firm. That all stands out when real interest rates are still negative.

The overall impression from all today's releases is continued inflation pressure supported by a stronger mfg cycle. The signs of a fall-off in services momentum, however, bear monitoring, perhaps showing signs that tightening might actually be biting. If so, the implication is a flatter curve.

China's incremental policy is unlikely to move the cycle. Japan's nominal growth is strong enough to make the October BOJ meeting interesting. In Korea, the mainstream MPC view of one hike in the next 6M looks light. The revival in property sentiment in Taiwan is important given negative real rates.

I have been thinking that underlying inflation remains modest compared with headline. That is still true, but today's inflation data were strong. Tankan price measures for all firms were firmer than for large firms alone. And Tokyo September inflation was broad as well as strong.

Underlying inflation was firm in September, because of energy, and the surge in semiconductor prices raising the price of electronics devices. September data show the chip shock isn't over yet, and the BOK expects demand-pull inflation to also become more obvious in the coming months.

The Tankan survey suggests nominal growth stronger at the margin, but not gaining a lot of new momentum. The tone of the summary of opinions of the September meeting looks similar: likely faster rate hikes, but no sense of the sort of urgency that would make October a live meeting.

Softer output and capex in August is most likely noise, reflecting temporary issues in auto production, and lumpiness in investment spending on transport equipment. Even with that, Q3 GDP growth is tracking around 1% QoQ.

The manufacturing PMIs remain mixed. The S&P version is much stronger. And while weak in level terms, prices in the official versions are strong. This is the context for the latest, incremental, policy measures: from Beijing's perspective, conditions just aren't bad enough to warrant a new approach.

The main cycle news in China is the rebound in input prices that likely further postpones monetary loosening. In Japan, the market will be waiting for this week's summary opinions of the September meeting. Korea has the strongest cycle momentum. In Taiwan, monetary policy looks too loose.

The CBC last week claimed that even with the policy rate staying at 2%, its monetary stance "remains on the tight side". I am not persuaded, but it is worth studying the bank's argument.

In many advanced economies, governments are drowning in debt. But in Korea and Taiwan they are floating up on the flood in revenue generated by the semiconductor boom. There is so much money that both economies plan looser fiscal policy while also paying back debt.

The cycle isn't bad enough from Beijing's point of view to shift policy. With growth strengthening, it is reasonable to expect 25bp hikes/quarter in Japan. The BOK's dot plot looks light against nominal growth of near 30%. The CBC on hold is light when real rates across the curve are negative.