Independent research on the economies and markets of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China, from Taipei. Every major release, the cycle, and the themes that run across the region.
The latest releases, our notes on them, and the headline indicators, updated every day. From the Daily plan up; free members get a taste.
Cycle notes on each release, plus Outlook and Thematic pieces.
The terms of trade dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months. However, when thinking about the implications, two caveats are needed: is the October decline monthly noise, and is the rise in national incomes just the first phase of the semi boom
In a speech at the weekend Governor Ueda laid open the possibility that Japan might finally be able to achieve its 40-year quest for "domestic demand-led adjustment". That's a big deal. Key is how corporate savings and investment react to higher nominal growth and labour shortages.
With some trepidation, I am releasing my first....rap. Perhaps not the vibe you would expect from me, or from a rap, given both it and the accompanying video are another attempt to argue against the idea of Japanification.
I think the curve should flatten, as the BOJ continues to hike because of decent growth and strong inflation, while the longer-end is dampened by medium-term headwinds for inflation and a repatriation flow. These I think remain the themes, though the message from today's releases is mixed.
October export growth was the strongest in 20 years. That doesn't tell us what happens next. If 2025 is any guide, even the slowdown suggested by equities might not happen. What the data do say is that AI tech demand remained extremely strong in October, leaving Taiwan with an enormous trade surplus
PPI inflation accelerated again in October, a rise that is supporting nominal GDP and would usually lift corporate profits too. But this is all externally-driven. Downstream prices in PPI and the overall CPI remain weak, and outside of food, leading indicators point to slower inflation in 2027.
The outlook for macro markets in the region remains closely tied with the fortunes of the AI cycle. While uncertainty remains, rates, currencies and equities will likely trade together. Currencies might end up looking different, depending on how the dollar reacts to any shift in semi demand.
Every weekday evening: the day's releases across the region.
Credit growth continues to slow in China. The trend for M1 also remains down, warning of more deflationary pressure in 2027. In Q3, the current account surplus widened. In Korea, the TOT dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months.
Every week, four charts on what matters. Free with membership.
The key issue in the region is the outlook for AI tech demand. However, other dynamics are important. In the big economies, property matters in China and consumption in Japan. In Korea, the tech spillover to domestic demand hasn't happened yet. It has in Taiwan, but the boom hasn't lifted the TWD.
First takes on each release, as it comes out.
East Asia Econ is run from Taipei by Paul Cavey, drawing on thirty years of living and working in the region. The research rests on its own data infrastructure, built directly from official sources and published as live dashboards, interactive chart packs and a data API.
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