East Asia Econ

My latest video, discussing why inflation risks won't end even if the Iran War eventually does. The reasons: both cost-push and demand-pull from the semiconductor boom, dynamics that are being reinforced by the cheapness of currencies.

Average CPI and PPI inflation remained relatively elevated in June. However, most of the rise has been because of external factors, and leading indicators show that for now, the peak has likely been seen.

The flow story behind KRW weakness has transitioned from overseas buying by domestic retail to domestic selling by foreigners. Two other factors help inform the exchange rate: correlation with the JPY and, perhaps, a BOK that is late in hiking given the huge acceleration in NGDP growth.

June's core inflation of 2.3% isn't high in an absolute sense. But outside LNY, it is the highest since the 1990s, and, remarkably, above both the policy rate and 10-year yields. Energy inflation will ease, but with wage growth of 2.7% and rising, and equity prices strong, rates really look too low.

Today's May consumption activity data were stronger again. That rise can be explained by three factors: a temporary boost as purchases of household appliances are brought forward, decent – though in May, not necessarily stronger – wage growth, and perhaps, a wealth effect as asset prices rise.

China's cycle looks more mixed rather than bad. In Japan, there are clear signs of an acceleration in both activity and inflation. For Korea and Taiwan, the theme is a broadening of activity as the semiconductor export boom feeds into domestic economies.

A slide pack laying out themes for the region overall, and for each individual economy.

The detailed release of the Tankan confirms the message of yesterday's summary: price pressures are rising again, and momentum in the corporate sector is strong. There is some sluggishness in autos, but as in export data, that is being offset by AI demand for electronics.

The sharp rise in inflation since March slowed in June, and the BOK expects a drop in July. But cost-push from the surge in semi prices is feeding into CPI, and the BOK also expects "expanding demand pressures" from the economic recovery to drive inflation from here.

The detailed version of the Tankan won't be released until tomorrow. But the headlines today show a clear story: business sentiment remains strong, and inflation pressures have risen yet again. The BOJ needs to become more hawkish.

There are signs of a broadening of the cycle, with construction past the worst, capex rising, and the labour market bottoming. However, while services activity has been strong recently, retail sales are still sluggish, and industrial production is going sideways.

Today's official PMIs ticked up, but not by enough to clear market concern about the strength of the cycle caused by the weak IP, retail sales and FAI data of the last couple of months.