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BOJ trimmed mean inflation continues to rise, but the BOJ is keeping policy unchanged. With rates remaining anchored, the JPY continues to sell off. The MOF has been talking about "stealth intervention", but it is unclear if that includes pressure on the GPIF to unwind some of its foreign holdings.
Inflation rose again in August, and there should be further upside before the end of the year. Headline CPI should be easing in 2023, but whether core does too depends on inflation expectations, the labour market, and the transition from goods to services prices.
Exports continue to go sideways, which at a headline level is because weaker tech shipments are being offset by stronger car sales. Imports in JPY terms are still rising, so the trade deficit continues to widen.
Upstream goods price inflation softened in August, pointing to a peaking of CPI in the next few months. One risk to that would be a pick-up in services price inflation, but today's quarterly business survey from the MOF suggests the cycle isn't yet strong enough to produce such an outcome.
The Economy Watchers survey rebounded in August, and is at a level consistent with mild GDP growth. But the survey isn't strong or stable enough to suggest an acceleration in the sluggish pace of the post-pandemic recovery.
The wage data don't change the macro picture. Wages are creeping up, but are rising less quickly than inflation. The labour market isn't yet tight enough for nominal wages to accelerate much more.