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The most recent comments are shown here, with older ones in the archive
The most recent comments are shown here, with older ones in the archive
The optimistic interpretation for the weak May PMIs is this is a soft patch that was inevitable after the strong Q1 bounce. But for manufacturing at least, that isn't especially persuasive, and the broad-based weakness of output prices is a warning of more more fundamental challenges.
If Japan's economic problems were about debt and deflation, then China is facing similar challenges. The one difference is the competitiveness of China's exporters. As a result, China is likely to see falling rates, but currency strength could be more of an issue for China than it was for Japan.
It has been a quiet few days for China data. What has emerged continues to look bearish, with the move of money into time deposits continuing, industrial prices falling more quickly, and corporate profits weakening.
Data inconsistencies are commonplace in economic analysis, and not just in China. Even so, that it is possible to claim that in the same month Chinese retail sales grew by 1%, 5% or 60% is problematic. We remain sceptical that the economy has recovered as much as official data suggest.