Paid Members Public China – taking stock The currency is on the move again. Interest rate differentials suggest fair value for $CNY of 7.3; the weakness of the domestic economy and the over-shooting that normally happens with $CNY moves suggests more upside still. This move increases risks for China's economy, and for global markets. Paid Members Public China – industrial prices stabilise YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall. Paid Members Public China - not a firm floor The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case. Paid Members Public China - August credit data Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle. Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
Paid Members Public China – industrial prices stabilise YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall. Paid Members Public China - not a firm floor The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case. Paid Members Public China - August credit data Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle. Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
Paid Members Public China - not a firm floor The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case. Paid Members Public China - August credit data Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle. Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
Paid Members Public China – taking stock Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case. Paid Members Public China - August credit data Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle. Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
Paid Members Public China - August credit data Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle. Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
Paid Members Public China – August CPI/PPI Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.
