Paid Members Public China – no change in PMIs The optimistic interpretation for the weak May PMIs is this is a soft patch that was inevitable after the strong Q1 bounce. But for manufacturing at least, that isn't especially persuasive, and the broad-based weakness of output prices is a warning of more more fundamental challenges. Paid Members Public The China Diviner If Japan's economic problems were about debt and deflation, then China is facing similar challenges. The one difference is the competitiveness of China's exporters. As a result, China is likely to see falling rates, but currency strength could be more of an issue for China than it was for Japan. Paid Members Public China – still soft It has been a quiet few days for China data. What has emerged continues to look bearish, with the move of money into time deposits continuing, industrial prices falling more quickly, and corporate profits weakening. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Data inconsistencies are commonplace in economic analysis, and not just in China. Even so, that it is possible to claim that in the same month Chinese retail sales grew by 1%, 5% or 60% is problematic. We remain sceptical that the economy has recovered as much as official data suggest. Paid Members Public China – property prices weaken That property price inflation eased in April is no surprise, given the softening of all other real estate indicators this month. But it is still worth noting, especially given other data showing mortgage rates falling to new record lows. If policy can't turn the market around, then what can? Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month. Article achive Charts Consumer Exports Industry Macro
Paid Members Public The China Diviner If Japan's economic problems were about debt and deflation, then China is facing similar challenges. The one difference is the competitiveness of China's exporters. As a result, China is likely to see falling rates, but currency strength could be more of an issue for China than it was for Japan. Paid Members Public China – still soft It has been a quiet few days for China data. What has emerged continues to look bearish, with the move of money into time deposits continuing, industrial prices falling more quickly, and corporate profits weakening. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Data inconsistencies are commonplace in economic analysis, and not just in China. Even so, that it is possible to claim that in the same month Chinese retail sales grew by 1%, 5% or 60% is problematic. We remain sceptical that the economy has recovered as much as official data suggest. Paid Members Public China – property prices weaken That property price inflation eased in April is no surprise, given the softening of all other real estate indicators this month. But it is still worth noting, especially given other data showing mortgage rates falling to new record lows. If policy can't turn the market around, then what can? Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month. Article achive Charts Consumer Exports Industry
Paid Members Public China – still soft It has been a quiet few days for China data. What has emerged continues to look bearish, with the move of money into time deposits continuing, industrial prices falling more quickly, and corporate profits weakening. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Data inconsistencies are commonplace in economic analysis, and not just in China. Even so, that it is possible to claim that in the same month Chinese retail sales grew by 1%, 5% or 60% is problematic. We remain sceptical that the economy has recovered as much as official data suggest. Paid Members Public China – property prices weaken That property price inflation eased in April is no surprise, given the softening of all other real estate indicators this month. But it is still worth noting, especially given other data showing mortgage rates falling to new record lows. If policy can't turn the market around, then what can? Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month. Article achive Charts Consumer Exports
Paid Members Public The China Diviner Data inconsistencies are commonplace in economic analysis, and not just in China. Even so, that it is possible to claim that in the same month Chinese retail sales grew by 1%, 5% or 60% is problematic. We remain sceptical that the economy has recovered as much as official data suggest. Paid Members Public China – property prices weaken That property price inflation eased in April is no surprise, given the softening of all other real estate indicators this month. But it is still worth noting, especially given other data showing mortgage rates falling to new record lows. If policy can't turn the market around, then what can? Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month. Article achive Charts Consumer
Paid Members Public China – property prices weaken That property price inflation eased in April is no surprise, given the softening of all other real estate indicators this month. But it is still worth noting, especially given other data showing mortgage rates falling to new record lows. If policy can't turn the market around, then what can? Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month. Article achive Charts
Paid Members Public China – soft cross the board China's official activity data for April were soft, with IP, FAI and property construction contracting MoM, and retail sales slowing. Early indicators for May don't suggest a turnround, with the fall in industrial prices accelerating so far this month.
