The most recent comments are shown here, with older ones in the archive
The currency is on the move again. Interest rate differentials suggest fair value for $CNY of 7.3; the weakness of the domestic economy and the over-shooting that normally happens with $CNY moves suggests more upside still. This move increases risks for China's economy, and for global markets.
YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall.
The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around.
Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case.
Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle.
Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.