Daily

Two things today. First, China's big data releases, which show broad macro stabilisation. Second, TSMC's quarterly earnings. Management comments were positive again, forecasting revenue growth of over 30% this year. That has read through for total exports and Taiwan's overall economy.

Lots of data today – fx settlement for China, machine orders and the Reuters Tankan in Japan, import and export prices and labour market data in Korea, and wages in Taiwan.

Today's focus is China, with the release of headline trade data for March, and upstream price data through the first 10 days of April to give an early sense of PPI inflation this month. Also, my latest video, discussing the impact of the Iran war on the outlook for the region.

China's PBC is increasing liquidity injections, with only limited feedthrough to broader monetary conditions. In Japan, by contrast, the BOJ is tapering, but bank lending growth remains strong. Korea's exports for the first 10 days of April increased sharply, pushing up the trade surplus.

A busy day today, with CPI data for China, PPI for both China and Japan, foreign trade data in Taiwan, and a monetary policy meeting in Korea that was more interesting than I'd been expecting.

A longer piece on Korea inflation dynamics, and a link to my podcast discussion on Taiwan. Japan consumer confidence fell sharply in March, illustrating the growth risks if the ceasefire doesn't hold. Korea Q4 FOF data show a structural rise in savings, that continues to be invested overseas.

Decent wage growth in Japan in February, but a terrible March EW survey; stupendous current account data in Korea, but continued equity outflows; and inflation falling in March in Taiwan, but underlying core settling at around 2%

In February, despite the strength of consumer confidence, Japanese consumption weakened. That was before the Iran war, and the consequences of the conflict also aren't evident in trade data for the first 20 days of March. They can be seen, however, in the fall in Taiwan's fx reserves last month.

More inflation indicators to report today. China's high-frequency upstream price data continue to point to a YoY rise in PPI in March for the first time since 2022. In Japan, latest data show the output gap (on the BOJ's updated methodology) tightened further in Q425.

Like the manufacturing version a couple of days ago, China S&P/RatingDog services PMI in March gave back the big gains of February. Japan's services PMI remained firm, but showed rising inflation and falling confidence. Korea February JOLTS data point to the labour market remaining soft.

More on inflation pressures in Asia, with the details of the Japan Tankan, and Korea March CPI. Also, export price deflation in China being less than often supposed, one of the highlights of February trade in volume and price terms.

Once again, the key theme in today's data releases has been inflationary pressure, seen in Japan's Tankan and the regional PMIs. By contrast, activity proxies haven't moved much. Korea's trade data help explain why: export growth in March was strong, boosted again by chip sales.