Daily

Three longer pieces today: on the regional chip cycle, Japan in the run-up to next week's BOJ meeting, and a video discussing two macro puzzles in Korea. Also, charts summarising today's three data releases: upstream prices in China, and in Japan, CPI and services PPI.

Taiwan's export orders and IP in March were strong. Exports in Korea's Q1 GDP likewise show the continued strength of the semiconductor cycle, and Japan's April manufacturing PMI also rose. By contrast, domestic demand and consumer indicators across the region are weaker.

Japan's trade data for March show some of the trends seen elsewhere in the region: strong semiconductor sales, and as yet, no big rise in energy imports. In Korea, goods PPI signals further rises in goods CPI, and the BOK's loan officer survey warns of a rebound in lending to the household sector.

A longer note today on whether the recent lessening of deflation in China is sustainable. I think it might be. Also, data for the first 20 days of April in Korea showing continued chip export strength, and the SLO survey for Japan indicating stable lending standards.

China's detailed data show chip exports and imports well up in March and imports from the Middle East sharply down. EV exports weren't strong, but shipments of solar panels were. Elsewhere, Japan services activity remains strong. Consumers are happy about incomes, but still worried about prices.

China's detailed Q1 GDP data aren't obviously consistent. By expenditure, net exports were down while investment were up. But by industry, manufacturing rose while construction contracted. Across the region, the decline in oil prices will be welcome, but government energy subsidies remain large.

Two things today. First, China's big data releases, which show broad macro stabilisation. Second, TSMC's quarterly earnings. Management comments were positive again, forecasting revenue growth of over 30% this year. That has read through for total exports and Taiwan's overall economy.

Lots of data today – fx settlement for China, machine orders and the Reuters Tankan in Japan, import and export prices and labour market data in Korea, and wages in Taiwan.

Today's focus is China, with the release of headline trade data for March, and upstream price data through the first 10 days of April to give an early sense of PPI inflation this month. Also, my latest video, discussing the impact of the Iran war on the outlook for the region.

China's PBC is increasing liquidity injections, with only limited feedthrough to broader monetary conditions. In Japan, by contrast, the BOJ is tapering, but bank lending growth remains strong. Korea's exports for the first 10 days of April increased sharply, pushing up the trade surplus.

A busy day today, with CPI data for China, PPI for both China and Japan, foreign trade data in Taiwan, and a monetary policy meeting in Korea that was more interesting than I'd been expecting.

A longer piece on Korea inflation dynamics, and a link to my podcast discussion on Taiwan. Japan consumer confidence fell sharply in March, illustrating the growth risks if the ceasefire doesn't hold. Korea Q4 FOF data show a structural rise in savings, that continues to be invested overseas.