Daily

A longer note summarising cycle and structure and arguing that risk-reward is moving in favour of Asian currencies. Against that framework, today's export data for the first 10 days of January in Korea were soft. But Taiwan wage data for November tick the right boxes.

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.

More charts than usual on Japan today, with the Q3 sakura report and output gap from the BOJ, November wages, and December consumer confidence. Also, Q3 flow of funds data for Korea, which offers another perspective on the outflows that have been weighing on the KRW.

Data on FX reserves and PBC liquidity operations in December suggest the PBC balance sheet has become more supportive for growth. The Japan services PMI was weaker, but the commentary doesn't suggest a real change in direction. Services prices suggest core inflation in Taiwan has bottomed.

An update on Japan's fiscal position after the release of the budget for 2026, and detailed data on government interest payments and revenue through Q125. Also, a look at financial stability issues in Korea, and fx reserves and the currency in Taiwan.

Looking through the data releases over the two weeks I've been away, and two themes stand out: rebounding activity, and firmer inflation. Both trends are most obvious in Korea. The picture is more mixed in China, but even there it looks like less deflation through to Chinese New Year.

In today's daily: China monetary developments, Japan CPI, Korea PPI, highlights of the BOJ meeting, and a link to my latest podcast. From today, I am taking a couple of weeks off. Thanks for your interest this year, I hope you've found the content useful. Happy Christmas, and best wishes for 2026.

Detailed trade data show hybrids becoming the big driver of China's auto export surge. The political tensions with China have yet to derail Japan's tourism industry. In no surprise to anyone, Taiwan's central bank kept policy on hold in its Q4 monetary policy meeting.

Lots to update on Japan today, with the flash PMI, machine orders, foreign trade and the flow of funds. And on Korea, there are the minutes from yesterday of the November MPB meeting, and today's release of the Q3 financial statement analysis data.

Today has been very quiet for releases, so just a few charts on Japan after the release of the full Tankan survey for Q4.

In addition to all today's data from China, some comments on Friday's monetary release and yesterday's high-frequency price data. In Japan, in addition to the Tankan, the BOJ today released the results of a special wage survey. Taiwan FDI data show investment in the US this year falling to USD4bn.

Some of the language in China's CEWC communiqué was encouraging. In Korea, while auto prices remain weak, overall export prices are rising and pushing up the terms of trade. Japan's monetary base is shrinking more quickly than any time since 2007. And my latest video, discussing Japan and the JPY.