China's incremental policy is unlikely to move the cycle. Japan's nominal growth is strong enough to make the October BOJ meeting interesting. In Korea, the mainstream MPC view of one hike in the next 6M looks light. The revival in property sentiment in Taiwan is important given negative real rates.

I am away the next few days, so this week's summary focuses on what appeared on the site in the last week. I am back on Monday 14th September.

China macro is again a contrast between export strength and renewed deflationary pressure. Takaichi's sales tax cut doesn't look like the policy approach Bessent wants. For Korea, data an BOK analysis points to upside risks. In Taiwan, the key issue is lagged spillover from the 24-25 export boom.

The two big events this week are China's CXMT listing and the Bank of Japan meeting. The first matters because the outlook for chip demand is such a dominant regional theme. The BOJ meeting is important because of rates in Japan, but also implications for the JPY and regional currencies.

China's combination of recovering output, weak expenditure, and mixed monetary isn't great, but also doesn't suggest a big change in macro policy. I think it unlikely that Japan's bid for repatriation works without more BOJ normalisation. Korea and Taiwan cycles remain strong, implying rate hikes.

My latest video, discussing why inflation risks won't end even if the Iran War eventually does. The reasons: both cost-push and demand-pull from the semiconductor boom, dynamics that are being reinforced by the cheapness of currencies.

A slide pack laying out themes for the region overall, and for each individual economy.

Two of the big questions for markets in the region are 1) the implications for monetary policy as oil prices fall, and 2) what is happening with China's cycle, and what does that – and the strengthening of the USD – mean for the USD.

Earlier this week, I published a longer note delving into the macro and market implications of the semiconductor boom. You might prefer pictures to text, so this is the accompanying chart pack.