Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Region – manufacturing cycle
Korea's PMI is now back at 50, but while Taiwan's remains below that level, the upside potential looks bigger. Taiwan domestic momentum also looks stronger. Inflation is higher in Korea, but the risk that the central bank has to raise rates again next year is probably a bit higher in Taiwan.
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Region – slow export turn
Both Taiwan export orders for October and Korea exports for the first 20 days of Korea show YoY improvement. However, in level terms the recovery is less clear.
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Region – export cycle inflecting
It looks more likely that the export cycle is improving. That is positive for currencies, particularly the TWD. For both Taiwan and Korea, it also raises the likelihood of rates being higher for longer.
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Region – export upturn still patchy
The data are still patchy, but it does now look like the export cycle is starting to turn. Markit PMIs in Korea and Taiwan were better in October, and Korean exports rose for the first time in over a year. The turn is a little late, but could still be important for macro if it lasts into Q124.
Charts
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