I am trying out a new version of my interactive chart packs that makes navigation between economies and issues easier. It has almost 1,000 charts, and isn't yet behind a paywall. Please forward to anyone who might find it useful.

In manufacturing, sentiment is rising for both exporters and domestic firms, and capex intentions are strengthening too. That suggests support for the cycle not apparent in recent equity market moves. However, non-manufacturing sentiment is weak, and the labour market still isn't recovering.

A review, covering headline, underlying, goods and expectations. Underlying inflation is probably still a bit below 2%, but that matters less when headline has been at or above target for 50 of the last 53 months. Absent an external shock, a 2-a-year hiking schedule looks too light.

The two big events this week are China's CXMT listing and the Bank of Japan meeting. The first matters because the outlook for chip demand is such a dominant regional theme. The BOJ meeting is important because of rates in Japan, but also implications for the JPY and regional currencies.

Korea's real GDP growth in Q1 was solid, but nominal continues to be spectacular, rising almost 20% YoY for the first time in 30 years. Stronger nominal growth is typical of a commodity boom, and suggests more upside for rates than implied by inflation and real GDP alone.

Today's data for June exports and Q1 household incomes illustrate three of the big macro themes of the moment: Japan's role in the AI infrastructure supply chain, the benefits for households of buoyant asset markets, and why politicians are nonetheless talking about fiscal help for households.

In the Q3 loan officer survey, lower mortgage demand was offset by higher demand for other household loans. That points to the continuing risk of lending to finance stock purchases. The impact of the surge in equity market activity can also be seen in today's June PPI report.

China's combination of recovering output, weak expenditure, and mixed monetary isn't great, but also doesn't suggest a big change in macro policy. I think it unlikely that Japan's bid for repatriation works without more BOJ normalisation. Korea and Taiwan cycles remain strong, implying rate hikes.

It is just about possible to defend the BOJ's slow but steady hikes since 2024, in the sense that growth, inflation and the JPY have all been rangebound. But leading indicators for growth and inflation are now rising. I'd expect the bank to now move faster. The market still isn't priced for that.

As expected, the BOK hiked rates by 25bp today. The bank expects 2026 GDP growth to be "considerably" higher than the previous forecast of 2.6%, partly because it expects the cycle to broaden into domestic demand. That will in turn support inflation. Relative to market pricing, that feels hawkish.

The continued slowdown in credit growth is led by households and CGBs – corporate borrowing has been firm. But the M1:M2 ratio is slipping again, warning that the domestic dynamic that had contributed to lessening deflation and a less dovish PBC is now once again fading.

The BOK discussion tomorrow should have two levels, the usual analysis of growth, CPI, housing, and the KRW, but also analysis of how the huge semi terms of trade shock affects medium-term economic prospects. The first justifies rate hikes. I think the second argues for more hawkishness still.