Welcome to EAST ASIA ECON, a research service run from Taipei by Paul Cavey, and specializing in the markets and macro of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
We cover all the major data releases, as well as providing weekly and monthly summaries. We also devote a lot of time to thematic work, aiming to understand development patterns across the region, and to find common investment themes.
The analysis is founded on an on-the-ground knowledge gained from thirty years experience living, travelling and working in the region. We also have a very strong data infrastructure, built by directly accessing official sources, and made available to subscribers via a comprehensive range of interactive charts and a data app.
We don't think you'll find coverage that is as comprehensive and rounded anywhere else. The articles and charts below give a flavor of the work we are doing. There is a lot more on the home pages of the individual economies.
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The BOJ became more positive in 1H24, and labour market and price data since should have increased confidence further. So we think the bank hikes next week, with a probability of 60%. That our conviction isn't stronger still is because of the implications of the June non-decision on JGB purchases.
Recent data suggest an unchanged macro story: a slow moderation in inflation and a weak domestic economy, but export and property recoveries. The first two dynamics point to an interest rate cut, but the second two suggest that still isn't imminent.
Overall price expectations in today's July consumer confidence survey fell. But overall sentiment and property price expectations rose. That gives the BOK continued justification for pushing back on expectations for an immediate rate cut.
A reminder of our roadmap for China's cycle over the next few months, which we summarised in an opinion piece in today's Nikkei Asia.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Inflation was largely unchanged in July. Services inflation was a bit higher, but for the BOJ these data are probably less important than the results of the strong Tankan earlier in the month.
This is our monthly slide pack for China, that goes through the argument we laid out last week: how the Plenum and the US election together likely end the macro muddle through of the last 18 months.
Today's GDP release shows property activity is still collapsing and economy-wide pricing is weak. The PBC will struggle to hold up rates – and thereby the currency – if this week's Plenum doesn't provide a real boost to sentiment.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Even allowing for a change in credit intensity, June headline credit and money data are bearish. The one positive trend is data through May showing household demand deposits no longer falling so quickly. That shift continuing would help sustain China's macro muddle through.
We don't have conviction about what the Plenum will deliver, but we are confident that with next week's meeting, and then the US election, the macro and market muddle through of the last 18M is likely ending.
In staying on hold today, the BOK put slightly more emphasis on the KRW and household debt. The bank is moving towards a cut, but that decision now seems a bit more tied to the Fed and rate differentials.