East Asia Econ

Using an update of my regional chartpack to think about exchange rates. Specifically, I think the cycle and structure dynamics are moving risk-reward in favour of Asian currencies. I'd argue that is true if the global picture is unchanged, but it could also be true if conditions in the US falter.

Themes: capital flows v CNY appreciation in China; fiscal fear v real policy rate in Japan; foreign v domestic equity strength in Korea; policy status quo v export surge in Taiwan.

Even with data today showing a dip in exports in December, Taiwan's trade surplus last year reached the sort of sky-high levels last seen before the big TWD appreciation of the 1980s. Barring a real dislocation in AI hardware demand, underlying pressure for renewed appreciation will grow in 2026.

The second-derivative improvement in inflation is continuing, and should be seen in a better deflator when the Q4 GDP data are released later this month. However, there's not yet enough to think the trend can persist beyond Q126. One factor that could derail the improvement would be a stronger CNY.

November BOP data show another big current account surplus – and more big outflows into offshore equities. We can't be sure that outflows have yet peaked. But with the KRW cheap, semi exports gaining momentum and the government taking KRW stabilisation measures, risk around the currency are shifting

My latest video, discussing the lessening of deflationary pressure, whether that can continue, and what the implications are for markets.

The BOJ's quarterly regional sakura report shows conditions holding up, and the dip in consumer confidence in December isn't concerning given the post-March bounce. Wage growth in November was mixed, but can be expected to rebound in December on stronger bonuses.

Headlines that the FY2026 budget is the biggest ever suit the idea of Takaichi as an Abe-style loosener. However, government expenditure is stable relative to GDP, revenue is rising more, a primary surplus is planned, and though Q125, the government received more in interest than it paid out.

The mild rise in PPI goods inflation reflects the continued strength of import prices. Services PPI inflation is picking up too, reversing the sharp fall of 1H25. Neither development yet suggests CPI inflation is about to accelerate, but the bounce in services PPI removes downside risk for CPI.

I was very happy to do this podcast with friends at Alpine Macro.

Data releases the last couple of days give more evidence that tariffs haven't derailed exports or capex. Even so, the flow of funds for Q3 show corporates remain net savers. With the fiscal deficit now also now narrowing to the lowest level since the 1990s, the result is a growing CA surplus.

The BOK minutes shed more light on the improvement in cycle optimism that was clear at the November meeting. In terms of exports, that appears justified, because of strong semi exports and firmer profits. I am less sure about consumption, even though corporate earnings will lift bonuses.