East Asia Econ

Welcome

Welcome to EAST ASIA ECON, a research service run from Taipei by Paul Cavey, and specializing in the markets and macro of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

We cover all the major data releases, as well as providing weekly and monthly summaries. We also devote a lot of time to thematic work, aiming to understand development patterns across the region, and to find common investment themes.

The analysis is founded on an on-the-ground knowledge gained from thirty years experience living, travelling and working in the region. We also have a very strong data infrastructure, built by directly accessing official sources, and made available to subscribers via a comprehensive range of interactive charts and a data app.

We don't think you'll find coverage that is as comprehensive and rounded anywhere else. The articles and charts below give a flavor of the work we are doing. There is a lot more on the home pages of the individual economies.

Signing up here will ensure you receive occassional emails that give you a taste of what we do. If you work in a financial institution and are interested in subscribing to our full service, please get in touch for a trial. Special access is also available for academics.

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Japan – mixed underlying inflation

Japan – mixed underlying inflation

The April national CPI data only have incomplete hints of the transition the BOJ expects to domestically driven inflation. The more obvious trends for now remain renewed JPY weakness and labour market tightness.

3 min read

China – is that it for the export pause?

China – is that it for the export pause?

So far, the much-discussed rise in China's competitiveness has been most obvious in import substitution. With the export cycle now recovering, it is likely this year to also be seen in a renewed increase in China's global market share.

6 min read

Korea – no surprises from the BOK

Korea – no surprises from the BOK

No surprises today from the BOK: it still wants to see inflation come down further. But it was important that the bank once again highlighted upside risks to inflation from "exchange rate volatility".

1 min read

Korea – patchy cycle, still no cut

Korea – patchy cycle, still no cut

This week's consumer and business surveys show recovering exports, weak domestic sentiment, but firm headline inflation. The BOK is unlikely to shift policy.

4 min read

China – the buyers' strike in property

China – the buyers' strike in property

Friday's funding for buying inventories looks small. But with falling price expectations leading to a buyers' strike, it is a step in the right direction. This buyers' strike has cut construction. By keeping savings in the banks, it has lifted the S-I and CA surplus, and lowered velocity and CPI.

6 min read

Last week, next week

Last week, next week

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

4 min read

China – property down yet again

China – property down yet again

Property remains in a deep funk, and while the government talks confidently about a successful transition to new growth engines, all the policy action indicates increasing concern that real estate remains so weak.

3 min read

Korea – no change in the labour market

Korea – no change in the labour market

Headline developments in the labour market are consistent with the BOK's outlook for a moderation in tightness. However, the big structural changes – such as the rise in female part rate – mean these headline developments don't tell the whole story.

2 min read

Japan – consumption drags down GDP again

Japan – consumption drags down GDP again

GDP contracted again in Q1. The big driver remains the weakness of consumption, dragged down by the weak JPY and inflation eating into real incomes. Partly as a result, it seems to us that the BOJ is signalling it will raise rates more than the market currently thinks.

2 min read

China – slide pack

China – slide pack

A chart pack laying out our views on China. We argue that deflation is more cyclical than structural; consumption and services have recovered; and that property inventory policy would mean real upside risk.

4 min read

Last week, next week

Last week, next week

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

6 min read

China – first-ever drop in M1

China – first-ever drop in M1

The fall in credit in April, while unprecedented, can be argued away as reflecting a temporary shortfall in official bond issuance. It is more difficult to dismiss the equally unprecedented drop in M1 in the same way.

4 min read

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