YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall.

Industrial output was stable in August, remaining below the peak of March, and leads suggest a further slowdown in the next few months. It is unlikely consumption will be robust enough to compensate for this industrial slowdown, even though retail sales ticked up in August.

With the labour market not particularly hot, and the CBC forecasting inflation of less than 2% next year, it isn't surprising that tightening remains slow. That creates depreciation pressure on the TWD, but for the time being, that's not a trend the CBC will feel a need to fight very hard against.

BOJ trimmed mean inflation continues to rise, but the BOJ is keeping policy unchanged. With rates remaining anchored, the JPY continues to sell off. The MOF has been talking about "stealth intervention", but it is unclear if that includes pressure on the GPIF to unwind some of its foreign holdings.

At a headline level, export growth fell again in the first 20 days of September. The details were stronger, but that is likely noise, with more downside for exports ahead.

Inflation rose again in August, and there should be further upside before the end of the year. Headline CPI should be easing in 2023, but whether core does too depends on inflation expectations, the labour market, and the transition from goods to services prices.

Taiwan's export orders to China continued to drop sharply in August. That is an indication of just how weak Chinese growth is, but is also a warning that a big change may be coming in overall world demand.

Since the pandemic began, productivity has probably increased more quickly in Taiwan than any other major economy. As a result, Taiwan isn't facing the higher inflation and rates being experienced elsewhere. Taiwan's competitiveness instead reinforces structural trends for a stronger TWD.

The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around.

The labour market remains tight, making it difficult for the BOK to relax, even as import price inflation starts to recede.

Exports continue to go sideways, which at a headline level is because weaker tech shipments are being offset by stronger car sales. Imports in JPY terms are still rising, so the trade deficit continues to widen.

Upstream goods price inflation softened in August, pointing to a peaking of CPI in the next few months. One risk to that would be a pick-up in services price inflation, but today's quarterly business survey from the MOF suggests the cycle isn't yet strong enough to produce such an outcome.