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Inflation expectations are falling, but remain high in absolute terms. The pace of BOK tightening should slow, but inflation expectations need to be lower, with evidence of actual services price inflation falling, before the BOK goes on hold.
At a headline level, export growth fell again in the first 20 days of September. The details were stronger, but that is likely noise, with more downside for exports ahead.
The labour market remains tight, making it difficult for the BOK to relax, even as import price inflation starts to recede.
Headline inflation slowed in August, but core remained strong. It is easy to assume the BOK remains hawkish in the short term. But with growth now slowing, pricing around the BOK into 2023 is starting to look more interesting.
Exports fell in August at the sharpest rate since early 2020. The data are following our leading indicator, which points to exports falling 10% YoY in the next 3M.
The BOK remains hawkish, continuing to stress that containing inflation is its number one goal. It will probably be at least another couple of month before the growth picture starts to challenge this stance.