Falling prices are often used as evidence for China exporting overcapacity. But export price deflation is now easing, as the base effect of the big inflation of 2022 fades.
As has been true in Japan, consumer confidence in Taiwan remains inversely correlated with inflation expectations, implying nominal wage growth is too low.
I suppose it isn't really surprising given exports and the trade balance, but the bounce back in the manufacturing share since the early 2000s is still rather remarkable.
Inflation fell sharply in Tokyo in April. The macro story should mean some of the decline is temporary, but it complicates the more bullish story the BOJ wants to tell
Overall consumer confidence is at the average of the last 20 years. But by age, young people are more optimistic than usual, 40-60 year olds much less so.
Unusual domestic strength got Taiwan through the '23 export recession. Exports are now recovering, but consumption is still holding up. That's good news for the economy, bad news for the central bank.
The flash services PMI remained strong in April, and the mfg PMI lifted towards 50. S&P also reported the survey showing "intensifying price pressures". Japan is heating up.
There was a bit of pick-up in IC orders in March, but not by enough to lift total orders, which have yet to regain 2023 levels. The export recovery remains sluggish.
Relative to history, business sentiment in Japan is the strongest among most major economies in both mfg and non-mfg. That's only been seen once before.
Japan's export volumes to China are still almost 20% below the peak. Nor surprising, when the only strength in China's imports is primary goods and semi.
It still isn't even at 0.2% YoY, but rental CPI is now rising the fastest since the 1990s, which is pulling up imputed rent too. Together, they account for almost 20% of the basket.
The cheap JPY isn't boosting Japan's merchandise exports, but it has helped with a sharp recovery in tourism, even though arrivals from China remain subdued.
The recent recovery in the mfg cycle has been underwhelming. One reason is its narrowness: sales at TSMC are up, but for the rest of the listed are flat.
The shunto is important for regular workers, but part-time workers are now also getting decent pay rises, a real sign that the labour market is tightening.
There's a growing divergence between ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and that shows the contrast between weak property and strong manufacturing activity.
Official data show property price deflation isn't worsening. Private measures suggest the same thing, though anecdotes suggest actual market conditions are much weaker
Today's PBC action to drain liquidity for the second consecutive month via the MLF follows a big run-up in 2H23. Still, it does show that the bank remains a cautious easer.