Taiwan – wage growth up to 2.5%

The slow but steady pick-up in wage inflation is continuing. The trend is now up to 2.5%, the highest in 20 years. The lift is being led by manufacturing, where wage inflation is nearer 4%. These trends will keep a floor under both CPI inflation, and interest rates.
Korea – private sector employment still weak

The reversal of December's fall in jobs continued in February, but the rise is still being driven by employment in the public sector, and of more elderly workers. In line with very poor business sentiment, private sector employment is continuing to weaken.
Japan – PPI and accumulated price pressure

February's 4% YoY PPI sustains the break with import prices. In level terms, the break is more understandable: import prices usually rise more than PPI, then correct with global recession or JPY strength. As yet, they aren't happening, increasing pressure for PPI to rise.
Taiwan – exports catch up with TSMC

The surge in exports this year isn't all front-loading and Chinese New Year. Through 2024, Taiwan's export data had been looking light relative to TSMC's sales. That gap has now been closed, meaning strong performance for TSMC can once again be thought of as implying macro strength for Taiwan.
Taiwan – exports strong again in February

There is funniness in the data because of the holiday effect and likely tariff front-loading. But still, the surges in some of the flows are striking: server and semi sales, exports and the trade surplus with the US, capital goods imports. No sign at all of the sluggishness seen in the Korean data.
Japan – consumption off to a bad start in 2025

The BOJ's proxy for consumption dropped in January to the lowest since 2022. The population is declining, but the January data don't look much better, even in per capita terms. One reason is inflation, which continues to erode household incomes.
Taiwan – inflation expectations rising again

The rebound in price expectations in Taiwan's consumer confidence survey is starting to look interesting. It isn't just Chinese New Year, with the rise beginning in October last year. Certainly not grounds for the CBC to be cutting rates. Perhaps a reason to hike?
Japan – SPPI inflation peaking?

In YoY terms, the trend in services PPI inflation is still up, but sequentially it is starting to look like it has peaked at a bit above 2%. There might get another boost from a strong shunto, but 2% pipeline inflation looks light for getting sustainable CPI of the same rate.
Taiwan – another sign of shifting supply chains

Data today show Taiwan's export orders dipped in January, but that was likely because of the Lunar New Year. Our broader leading indicator shows export growth remaining around 10% YoY in the next few months. More interesting in today's data is the continued fall in the overseas production ratio.
Korea – confidence up, prices down

Consumer confidence rose again in February but remains well below the LT average; moreover, the improvement is only being among younger people. At the same time, CPI and property price expectations softened. There will be more news tomorrow with business sentiment.
China – less property price deflation, but only just

Deflation eased in January, but only slightly. That's no surprise, given mortgage lending also remained weak last month. The sluggishness is persisting despite low rates, and the failure of rate cuts to revive the quintessentially rate sensitive sector remains a standout feature of this cycle.
Japan – solid services Tankan

Services sector sentiment in the Reuters Tankan remained elevated in today's February survey. Manufacturing is much weaker, and that remains something to be watching given the extra downside risk from tariffs. But in terms of Japan's cycle, Q1 is likely to be another decent quarter.
Korea – household deleveraging

Today's Q424 data show a continuation of the pick-up in household lending from the trough of early 2023. But at 2.4% saar compared with 8% before 2020, the rebound is mild, and slower than GDP growth. For an economy where most indicators have been deteriorating, that's one bit of good news.
Taiwan – upturn in wage growth holding

Like Japan, Taiwan had years of slowing wage and price inflation. And so, similarly with Japan, the turn in wage growth since the financial crisis is as much structural as cyclical. There's no sign of price inflation becoming problematic, but this wage picture suggests it isn't going back to zero.
China – real economy rates down again

Today's PBC data show another steep fall in mortgage interest rates in Q4. Rates are still 3%, so can go lower still. However, before 2020, real estate would be booming by now. That there's little reaction this time shows the problems in the real estate market won't be solved by rate cuts alone.
Japan – not simply import prices

Import price inflation did rise in January, but PPI inflation was much higher, and the relationship between the two has clearly weakened. One driver is the cutting back of gasoline price subsidies, a policy that had held back PPI even as import prices surged in 2021-22.
Korea – exports still slowing

10-day data are never the most robust indicator, and particularly in February given the January holidays. Still, it is notable that there's no turnaround in the export slowdown that began in Q4. Indeed, adjusting for working days, exports have fallen this month for the first time since late 2023.
Japan – EW suggests stable growth

There's plenty of evidence that in nominal terms, the economy is growing strongly. After adjusting for prices, however, growth in real terms isn't nearly so impressive. The Economy Watchers survey today suggests RGDP is expanding, but no more quickly than it was before 2020.
China – holiday affecting PMIs

Both the official and Caixin mfg PMIs fell in January. That doesn't tell us much. When Chinese New Year falls in January, it isn't unusual for the PMI to rebound with the rise in working days in February. The sharp drop in jobs in the Caixin is a concern, but wasn't seen in the official version.
Japan – inflation hits consumer confidence, again

The link between consumer confidence and prices has weakened in the last 18M. But it hasn't broken, as January data show: consumer confidence fell quite sharply this month, as price expectations rose. The implication is that while nominal wages are rising, they still aren't going up quickly enough.
Japan – upstream services inflation still rising

SPPI inflation remains in an uptrend, and is now running around 3.5% saar. A few months ago the BOJ rejigged the data to include a breakdown by labour content, and that shows SPPI rising most quickly in high-labour industries. This will give the bank further confidence in its price-wage story.
China – exports remarkably strong, imports notably weak

Export volume strength sustained through end-24. From the low of early 2023, shipments have risen by 30%. That's a growth rate rarely topped in the last 15 years, despite today's headwinds of tariffs and a global market share that is already large. Import growth, conversely, has rarely been weaker.
Japan – inflation moving up

My estimate of YoY trimmed mean inflation ticked up for the second consecutive month in December. That matters when the Tankan's measure of output prices has been warning the fall-back in inflation since was overdone. The backdrop is international core inflation settling at 2% saar since August.
Japan – no JPY boost to export volumes

Firms haven't responded in textbook fashion to the weaker JPY. While the currency is down 35% since 2019, export volumes have risen just 7%. The reason is export prices haven't been cut, with the weaker JPY instead flowing straight to the bottom line. In JPY terms, exports rose 50% in 2019-24.
Japan – household incomes up again in Q3

Today's household sector details of Q3 GDP show real incomes rose for a third consecutive quarter. That seems to bring to an end what had been a terrible period for incomes, and with the labour market remaining tight, suggests last year's recovery in consumption should continue.