At least through July, softening inflation has been making consumers feel happier. Likely, the recent typhoon damage will at least cause a pause. And while the price slowdown in theory helps the CBC, there's also the risk of aggregate demand remaining stronger for longer.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
The BOJ became more positive in 1H24, and labour market and price data since should have increased confidence further. So we think the bank hikes next week, with a probability of 60%. That our conviction isn't stronger still is because of the implications of the June non-decision on JGB purchases.
The CPB data do show that China's export price cycle is somewhat weaker than ROW. But the gap isn't that big, and the trend is similar. Particularly in the context of all the talk of over-capacity, the differences really don't look that big.
I don't think the BOJ is particularly data-dependent when it comes to headline monthly releases, which tend to be noisy. To the extent that today's July Tokyo CPI does matter, it suggests the underlying story remains unchanged.
Recent data suggest an unchanged macro story: a slow moderation in inflation and a weak domestic economy, but export and property recoveries. The first two dynamics point to an interest rate cut, but the second two suggest that still isn't imminent.
The BOK business sentiment survey continues to point to two very different dynamics: an export recovery that looks increasingly solid, and a downturn in the domestic economy that shows no sign of bottoming.
Core services PPI inflation in June rose 3% YoY for the first time since the early 1990s. This offers evidence of the BOJ's hoped-for virtual wage-price dynamic, with the annual rise in services PPI being led by high labour cost sectors.
The collapse in property market activity is showing up in sharply lower prices for building materials: they've now fallen by 50% from the peak. But overall industrial prices haven't fallen in the same way, and continue to point to PPI inflation of around 0%.
Some lessening of confidence in June made sense given the fall in the JPY, but last month's sharp drop in the services PMI still seemed overdone. In July, it rebounded back to a strong level, with the commentary highlighting rising employment and capacity pressures.
Overall price expectations in today's July consumer confidence survey fell. But overall sentiment and property price expectations rose. That gives the BOK continued justification for pushing back on expectations for an immediate rate cut.
A reminder of our roadmap for China's cycle over the next few months, which we summarised in an opinion piece in today's Nikkei Asia.
Korea's data today completes the PPI picture for the region for June. It shows two things: that the inflation cycle has modestly picked up, and that most of China's PPI deflation reflects this bigger global cycle rather than local factors specific to China.
The recovery in export orders has lost some momentum in the 3M to June. Perhaps there is another leg-up to come, but today's data for Korean exports through the first 20D of July were also more solid than spectacular.
Headline export growth in the first 20D of July picked up, but that was because of an extra working day. Adjusting for that and exports grew 11.4%. That's decent, but not showing signs of acceleration.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Today's settlement data again suggest the currency has been coming under more pressure. That is also the implication of $CNY being at the top of the band, though strangely, none of this pressure is being seen in fx reserve data.
The relationship between TSMC sales and Taiwan's macro data isn't precise, but this week's further upgrading of the company's guidance continues to suggest 2024 will be a very strong year for exports, and thus also the economy.
Inflation was largely unchanged in July. Services inflation was a bit higher, but for the BOJ these data are probably less important than the results of the strong Tankan earlier in the month.
June data show again that the fall in the exchange rate is boosting Japanese exports, but only via the translation effect into JPY. Export volumes aren't rising, with separate data showing little change in USD prices.
This is our monthly slide pack for China, that goes through the argument we laid out last week: how the Plenum and the US election together likely end the macro muddle through of the last 18 months.
The PBC has been signalling unhappiness with falling rates. But as long as price inflation and money supply growth remain so weak, it is difficult to see why interest rates don't fall further still.
The June data are exaggerated by flows that are likely one-off, but still, Taiwan offers one of the clearest illustrations of how the direction of FDI is shifting away from China and towards the rest of Asia.
Today's GDP release shows property activity is still collapsing and economy-wide pricing is weak. The PBC will struggle to hold up rates – and thereby the currency – if this week's Plenum doesn't provide a real boost to sentiment.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
