The tone of Ueda's speech today was rather constructive. Of course, he discussed the risks from tariffs, but didn't think they were likely to derail the economy. If some kind of Japan-US deal can be reached – and progress is reportedly being made – BOJ hikes will quickly be back on the table.
A shorter video that last time, summarising the most important issues for each economy, giving a regional ranking, and discussing market implications.
Rather than getting the tariff-reprieve boost seen in the official PMI, and other PMIs across the region, the S&P PMI fell to 48.3 in May, the lowest since September 2022. Export orders dropped to the lowest since July 2023. That fed into weaker staffing and continued falls in prices.
My model points to a rising risk of CBC tightening. But that reflects the export blow-out of 1H25, and neither markets nor officials expect that to persist. Moreover, there are the inklings of a structural rise in the TWD, which would mean tightening via the currency. Rates could actually be cut.
The Liberation Day tariffs caused the PMIs to fall sharply in April. Postponement of the tariffs triggered a recovery in May. But the bounce in the headlines was mild, and Korea, where according to S&P "new orders fell at the...strongest rate in almost a decade", continues to lag.
Operating profits reached another record high in Q1. Like the cycle overall, profits have been led by non-manufacturing, especially in terms of margins. That is partly due to cost-cutting, with the labour share dipping in Q1. Capex is rising, but not particularly fast, despite high cash holdings.
Even with a rebound in semi exports, overall Korean exports continue to go sideways. As a result, the underperformance relative to the rest of the region of the last 6M continues. This presidential election won't affect that, though it should bring stronger fiscal policy, boosting domestic demand.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
The manufacturing PMI did improve in May, lifted by a bounce in export orders. But there's no sign of a turnaround in the underlying economy, with the construction PMI weak, output prices softening, and business confidence remaining poor.
We don't get many expenditure inputs to estimate components of GDP each quarter. One of the few that is available is net exports, which can be proxied by the change in the monthly balance in goods and services trade. Data today show that remains high, but is now falling YoY, and will dampen Q2 GDP.
Tokyo data show May inflation remaining high. In other releases, unemployment is low and retail sales sluggish. Tokyo CPI dynamics are diverging from national trends, because of the stronger property market. But still, the message for the BOJ is the same: inflation is strong, but growth isn't.
After falling sharply in recent months, there was a modest bounce in consumer confidence in May. The consumer mood may have been given a boost by politicians focusing more on the cost of living crisis. But that crisis remained clear in today's survey, with inflation expectations remaining elevated.
The BOK cut rates again to 2.5% on the back of further downgrades to the outlook for growth. That forecast makes further cuts likely, though remarks today suggest a sharpening of the debater within the MPC about the need to boost growth versus the risk of rate cuts just pushing up asset prices.
Despite an improvement in consumer confidence, all-economy sentiment remained weak in May, dragged down by poor confidence in the corporate sector. However, inflation indicators are falling too. Everyone – it seems – expects the BOK to cut tomorrow, and that likely won't be the last in the cycle.
In Taiwan and Japan, rising inflation is eroding consumer confidence. In Korea, by contrast, less domestic uncertainty and lower inflation triggered a bounce in confidence in May. The differing inflation pictures offer a good illustration of why the BOK is cutting, while the BOJ and CBC are not.
Official industrial earnings show profitability deteriorating again. A rebound would be first seen in rising prices and improving corporate sentiment, neither of which is yet visible. The weakness is concentrated in heavy industry, but profitability in downstream sectors is only flat-lining.
Today's services PPI showed solid underlying inflation. However, the recent rebound in CPI has been driven by food prices, and in separate remarks today, governor Ueda sounded more concerned about those. With a meaningful deal on tariffs, further rate hikes would quickly come back onto the table.
The recent renewed decline in upstream prices is partly about energy, and so will provide some help to manufacturers. However, in a sign of the continued weakness of construction, building material prices have also dropped, and the acceleration in PPI deflation is rarely a good sign for the cycle.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Today's data show that, unlike Japan, Korean PPI is following import prices lower. Unsurprisingly, the big moves in the PPI April report were in energy prices, which fell 7.9% YoY. With the KRW also strengthening, the BOK from here should be able to focus even more on the weakness in growth.
BOJ core rose again in April, boosted by goods, keeping in place the cost of living squeeze that is feeding into declining sentiment. My measure of core services price inflation continues to run a bit under 2%. That's ok, but the drop in sentiment has clearly shifted risks to the downside.
After a tick-up in mid-2024, unemployment is back at 3.4%, the lowest in 25 years. In Korea, low UE is offset by big supply-side shifts as the participation rate rises. That isn't happening in Taiwan, so the labour market really is tight, with the big risk being tariffs cause export recession.
March machine orders surged, which could be tariff-related, but the strength was in domestic not foreign orders. Anyway, it seems unlikely to last, with today's flash May PMI repeating the downbeat message of the EW, with business confidence "the second-lowest recorded" since 2020.
Data today don't darken the price- and tariff-driven pessimism painted by the April EW survey. In the May Reuters Tankan, non-manufacturing sentiment was firm, supported in part by record tourist inflows. Manufacturing sentiment didn't drop further, and separately, export volumes for April rose.
Historically, in terms of both savings and inflation, Korea has looked different from the other East Asian economies. But that is now changing. In recent years, Korea has become a clear external creditor, and labour market developments warn of a structural slowdown in inflation.