Public Post Taiwan – exports catch up with TSMC The surge in exports this year isn't all front-loading and Chinese New Year. Through 2024, Taiwan's export data had been looking light relative to TSMC's sales. That gap has now been closed, meaning strong performance for TSMC can once again be thought of as implying macro strength for Taiwan.
Public Post Taiwan – exports strong again in February There is funniness in the data because of the holiday effect and likely tariff front-loading. But still, the surges in some of the flows are striking: server and semi sales, exports and the trade surplus with the US, capital goods imports. No sign at all of the sluggishness seen in the Korean data.
Public Post Japan – consumption off to a bad start in 2025 The BOJ's proxy for consumption dropped in January to the lowest since 2022. The population is declining, but the January data don't look much better, even in per capita terms. One reason is inflation, which continues to erode household incomes.
Public Post China – Japanification scorecard: part 1 A video discussing why China isn't following Japan's path. This is the first part, looking at the seven demand-side factors that caused Japan's problems, and how China compares. The second video will discuss supply-side issues and the "deflationary mindset".
Public Post Region – Japan outperforming China services This is a good way of showing the contrasting cyclical momentum in China and Japan. Except for the sudden stops during covid, the services PMI in China is the lowest on record. In Japan, it is near the strongest.
Public Post Korea – exports down in February Domestic demand in Korea has been weak for a number of months, with the economy supported by exports. But exports are now weakening too, as the semi cycle turns. No wonder the BOK is so worried about growth.
Public Post Region – monthly cycle slides Reasons for upside risks in Japan, with implications for BOJ; conviction that China isn't following Japan's 1990s past, meaning rates should be low enough; unlike the BOK, the CBC in Taiwan won't cut rates, and might yet hike again.
Public Post China - PMI details suggest a floor The PMIs continue to suggest that, overall, there was no lasting improvement in the cycle after the September policy push. There are though some signs that things aren't getting worse any more, with both the construction PMI and employment indicators suggesting a floor.
Public Post Taiwan – inflation expectations rising again The rebound in price expectations in Taiwan's consumer confidence survey is starting to look interesting. It isn't just Chinese New Year, with the rise beginning in October last year. Certainly not grounds for the CBC to be cutting rates. Perhaps a reason to hike?
Public Post Japan – SPPI inflation peaking? In YoY terms, the trend in services PPI inflation is still up, but sequentially it is starting to look like it has peaked at a bit above 2%. There might get another boost from a strong shunto, but 2% pipeline inflation looks light for getting sustainable CPI of the same rate.
Public Post Korea – more export underperformance Adjusted for holidays, and exports barely grew in the first 20 days of February. The big driver is the downturn in semi shipments. Equity performance suggests the relative underperformance of Korean exports relative to China and Taiwan will continue.
Public Post Taiwan – another sign of shifting supply chains Data today show Taiwan's export orders dipped in January, but that was likely because of the Lunar New Year. Our broader leading indicator shows export growth remaining around 10% YoY in the next few months. More interesting in today's data is the continued fall in the overseas production ratio.
