East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Today has been quiet for data releases. The main indicator of cyclical importance is 10-day upstream price data for China, which show an easing of inflation pressure since May. Elsewhere, Taiwan tourist arrivals data continue to lag behind the big recoveries seen in Korea and Japan.

Paul Cavey

May 25, 2026 • 2 min read

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Last week, next week

Two of the cycle themes in the region are the strength of the AI trade, and macro stability in China. These in turn form the context for the third: the impact of the Iran war. If that conflict, finally, is near some kind of resolution, market confidence around rate hikes could actually increase.

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East Asia Today

A few things on Japan today: CPI and export data in April, and Koeda's interesting speech yesterday. Consumer confidence in Korea rebounded in May, but property price expectations also firmed. Taiwan's labour market remains tight, with unemployment firmly pinned at the 20-year low of 3.3%.

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Japan – offsets to Iran

Tuition as well as energy subsidies make inflation look particularly low relative to the likely upside from the Iran war. The conflict will also slow growth. However, both export data for April and Koeda's speech yesterday indicate that growth downside will be limited if global tech demand sustains.