Japan – tourism diversification The cheap JPY isn't boosting Japan's merchandise exports, but it has helped with a sharp recovery in tourism, even though arrivals from China remain subdued.
Taiwan – so far, only TSMC The recent recovery in the mfg cycle has been underwhelming. One reason is its narrowness: sales at TSMC are up, but for the rest of the listed are flat.
Japan – part-time wages up The shunto is important for regular workers, but part-time workers are now also getting decent pay rises, a real sign that the labour market is tightening.
Japan – no JPY boost to export volumes The cheap JPY is boosting Japan's tourist inflows, but there continue to be no signs of the currency helping merchandise exports.
China – net exports boost growth China doesn't release detailed GDP by expenditure data, but the available snippets show Q1 outperformance was due to net exports.
China – savings rate falling Consumer sentiment does remain low in China, but it is encouraging that income growth has picked up, while the savings rate is coming down.
China – property activity falls even further There's just no floor for property. Starts fell again in March and are now 65% below the 2020 peak, and barely above the low of late 2008.
China – the gap in metals prices There's a growing divergence between ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and that shows the contrast between weak property and strong manufacturing activity.
China – official property px no worse Official data show property price deflation isn't worsening. Private measures suggest the same thing, though anecdotes suggest actual market conditions are much weaker
Region – import px disinflation ending Korean data today continue the clear turn in regional import prices of recent months. This will matter for inflation, even in China.
China – PBC prudence Today's PBC action to drain liquidity for the second consecutive month via the MLF follows a big run-up in 2H23. Still, it does show that the bank remains a cautious easer.
Japan – machine orders still subdued The BOJ uses machine orders as a lead for machinery investment. Data show Feb was stronger, but not by enough to lift the 3mma by much.
Taiwan – wage growth holding up Wage growth did slow in 2023, but that looks cyclical, not breaking the higher rate of trend growth that's been apparent since the pandemic.
China – mortgage lending bottoms out We can be increasingly confident that mortgage lending has bottomed out. But there aren't any signs of a rebound.
China – strong exports in March Exports rose MoM in March, while imports were weak. Outside concern about China's trade surplus is going to intensify.
Japan – happier households Today's Q1 BOJ consumer survey shows sentiment about income rising to the highest level in 20 years.
Korea – the ageing workforce Demographics are really having a big impact on the composition of employment.
Korea – labour market still tight Data today show Korea employment did tick down in March, but the unemployment rate remaining below 3%, the lowest since the 1990s.
