Paul Cavey

Public Post

Korea – June export surge fades in July

The pop in exports in June faded in the first part of July. That was perhaps because the pop in the DRAM price eased as well: semi exports have risen again in July, but at a slower pace, and exports of other products still aren't doing much. In terms of countries, there's also no big change.

Public Post

Taiwan – cycle lifting wages and productivity

Wage growth slowed in May in manufacturing, but the trend is still up, and in recent months it has been firm in services too. That CPI is slowing is partly due to the TWD, and partly productivity. In separate news, TSMC's sales were softer in June, but financial markets don't seem concerned.

Korea – BOK still more worried about growth

Japan – goods prices starting to reverse

China – deepening deflation

Taiwan – madly strong exports, TWD reducing inflation

Public Post

Japan – one shock eases, but the other intensifies

Japan in 2025 has suffered two negative shocks: tariffs, and a rebound in CPI that's eroded real incomes. June surveys, such as today's EW, show the household mood starting to improve as the price shock wanes. But that won't matter if Trump proceeds with the yet higher tariffs he's now threatening.

Japan – still the real wage squeeze

Last week, next week

Public Post

China – PPI deflation likely worsened further in June

10-day industrial prices ticked up a bit at the end of June, helped by energy. But building material and ferrous prices continued to drop, and with the higher base from last year, it still seems likely that next Wednesday's data will show headline PPI deflation worsened again in June.

Public Post

Taiwan – another hefty rise in fx reserves

At USD5.5bn, June's rise in reserves wasn't as big as May's USD10bn. But it is the first time since 2020 that reserves have grown by over USD5bn for two months running. If lifers/corporates are less willing to recycle the rising trade surplus, the CBC has to step in – or the TWD strengthens more.

Region – themes for 2H

Japan – BOJ officials still leaning positive

Public Post

China – still no activity or price momentum

In the Caixin services PMI, like the official version, both data and anecdotes are weak. "Staffing levels were lowered in June...linked to a slowdown in new order growth and concerns over costs", and "intense market competition" led to selling prices being cut at the sharpest pace since April 2022"

Korea – headline CPI ticks up, but should now fade

Japan – issues sharpen for the BOJ

Japan – helpful rebound in consumer confidence

Korea – finally, export perk up

Public Post

China – still no rebound

The Caixin PMI rose above 50 in June, but only to 50.4. Comments remained cautious. "Firms were generally cautious with hiring on the back of cost control". A "fourth monthly reduction in average input costs" was shared with clients, "resulting in another decline in average selling prices measures"

Japan – another solid Tankan

Korea – a change, even if it's not fundamental

China – structure of GDP shifting, but slowly

China – still looking like a soft floor

Last week, next week

Japan – cycle review and BOJ scenarios