East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note reviewing the cycle in Taiwan before the central bank's meeting tomorrow. In Japan, machine orders, exports and the Reuters Tankan all point to a strengthening manufacturing cycle on the back of global AI demand. Also, some charts on upstream prices in China.

Paul Cavey

Jun 17, 2026 • 2 min read

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Taiwan – is there a reason not to hike?

Core inflation has rarely been higher, the export economy is booming, and signs are emerging of stronger domestic demand. Core inflation is still only 2%, but yields are even lower (!), and there's plenty of asset price inflation in stocks. Hence the question: why wouldn't the CBC hike tomorrow?

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Japan – manufacturing upturn

Before the war, Japan's manufacturing cycle was gaining momentum. If the war is now over, then today's releases of machine orders, exports and business sentiment suggest that strengthening momentum can now become an important theme for Japan macro.

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East Asia Today

Another round of bad economic data in China. The BOJ raised rates today, with little reaction in either equities or fx, suggesting with rates at 1% monetary policy still remains very accommodative. In Korea, rather than higher import prices, it is the rise in export prices that is more significant.