East Asia Today

Upstream prices in China fell at the end of June, showing the feed through from the decline in the global oil price. Data on Friday showed a modest positive output gap in Japan. FX reserves in Taiwan dropped moderately in June.

Paul Cavey

Jul 6, 2026 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

Japan July CPI and August flash PMI point to rising inflation and a stronger cycle; Korea July PPI inflation softened, but exports in the first 20 days of August rose; Taiwan export orders in July also increased, with incremental drivers being servers and cooling products for AI devices.

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East Asia Today

Summary of a recent outlook note on China; trade data in Japan that continues to be boosted by AI tech demand; a collapse in Korea's net foreign assets because of the rise in the Kospi that boosted the value of foreigners' domestic equity holdings; and another quarter of 20%+ CA surplus in Taiwan.

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China – cycle concerns v the CNY

I am still totally convinced that cycle dynamics today are that different from 6M ago. But that property still hasn't found a floor is a concern, and it would now be less of a surprise if monetary easing starts again. For me, the interesting question is whether that has implications for the CNY.