East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Strong exports but weaker upstream prices in China. In Taiwan, TSMC's June sales suggest the upcycle in exports isn't over yet. At the same time, rapid growth in GDP is boosting tax revenues.

Paul Cavey

Jul 14, 2026 • 2 min read

Public Post

China – further export strength

China's exports continue to be strong. The rise in prices of semiconductors is playing a role, but so is the sharp increase in auto volumes, which is now over 1mn vehicles a month. Protectionism in the rest of the world has yet to disrupt these trends, which thus continue to support China's GDP.

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

Korean early trade data is always noisy, but today's numbers for the first 10 days of July don't show any significant change in underlying strength in exports and the trade surplus. Wage growth in Taiwan of around 3% likely means a floor for core CPI of 2%.

Subscribers Only

Weekly – will more hawkish CBs matter?

Cycles show signs of broadening, towards capex and services in Taiwan and Korea, and exports and consumption in Japan. This provides an opportunity for CBs, especially the BOJ, to become more hawkish. The question for markets is whether this can finally stop currencies from weakening.