East Asia Today

Summaries of three notes, covering: 1) yesterday's weak July inflation print in China; 2) today's summary of opinions of the July BOJ meeting and a few data releases in Japan; and 3) Taiwan's June wage data showing the slow but steady acceleration in wage growth is continuing.

Paul Cavey

Aug 10, 2026 • 2 min read

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Taiwan – wage growth above 3%

Annualised regular wage growth in both manufacturing and services has been above 3% since 2024. In Q2 in manufacturing, it has been near 4%. The risk remains that the export cycle now slows, but TSMC's strong sales and elevated manufacturing overtime don't suggest that is happening yet.

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Japan – more talk of upside risks for inflation

Today's summary of opinions of the July meeting had two themes: first, AI-related demand, and second upside risks to inflation – and the need for monetary policy to control them. The data flow showed a modest slowdown in bank lending, a somewhat sluggish EW survey, and a fall in the CA surplus.

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Last week, next week

China macro is again a contrast between export strength and renewed deflationary pressure. Takaichi's sales tax cut doesn't look like the policy approach Bessent wants. For Korea, data an BOK analysis points to upside risks. In Taiwan, the key issue is lagged spillover from the 24-25 export boom.