East Asia Econ

Japan – offsets to Iran

Tuition as well as energy subsidies make inflation look particularly low relative to the likely upside from the Iran war. The conflict will also slow growth. However, both export data for April and Koeda's speech yesterday indicate that growth downside will be limited if global tech demand sustains.

Paul Cavey

May 22, 2026 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

A few things on Japan today: CPI and export data in April, and Koeda's interesting speech yesterday. Consumer confidence in Korea rebounded in May, but property price expectations also firmed. Taiwan's labour market remains tight, with unemployment firmly pinned at the 20-year low of 3.3%.

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East Asia Today

Machine orders in March and trade in April show Japan's cycle doing well before the war; the PMI for May points to deterioration since, and yet higher inflation. April PPI shows inflation going higher in Korea too, but strong exports so far through May show downside risks to overall growth are less.

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East Asia Today

Today's main data releases were in Taiwan: another enormous CA surplus in Q1, which strong export orders for April suggest isn't about to decline much in Q2. Japan's May Reuters Tankan was solid, but the outlook weak. Finally, some charts from my China trade dashboard, available on the website.