China – CNY distorts trade data

The distortions from Chinese New Year often continue to affect China's trade data through March. This year there are two further complications: first, the surge in semiconductor prices, which is boosting both exports and imports; and second, the Iran War, which resulted in a big fall in China's…

Paul Cavey

Apr 20, 2026 • 1 min read

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

Credit growth continues to slow in China. The trend for M1 also remains down, warning of more deflationary pressure in 2027. In Q3, the current account surplus widened. In Korea, the TOT dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months.

Subscribers Only

Korea – first signs of a peak

The terms of trade dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months. However, when thinking about the implications, two caveats are needed: is the October decline monthly noise, and is the rise in national incomes just the first phase of the semi boom

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

Rather than Asada's speech today, I spent most of the day thinking about Ueda's much more interesting remarks at the weekend. Import price inflation in Japan accelerated in October, CPI in Korea is on track to get back to 3% this month, and interest rates in China continue to fall.