East Asia Econ

Region – the upside risks to inflation

My latest video, discussing why inflation risks won't end even if the Iran War eventually does. The reasons: both cost-push and demand-pull from the semiconductor boom, dynamics that are being reinforced by the cheapness of currencies.

Paul Cavey

Jul 9, 2026

Public Post

East Asia Today

Lots today: no-change inflation data in China, a strong sakura regional report from the BOJ, Taiwan's foreign trade showing peaky exports but strong capital goods imports, and evidence that the strong rise in nominal GDP growth is boosting tax revenues in Korea.

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China – inflation peak

Average CPI and PPI inflation remained relatively elevated in June. However, most of the rise has been because of external factors, and leading indicators show that for now, the peak has likely been seen.

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East Asia Today

The dip in Japan's CA surplus in May was not enough to alter the upwards trend, bank lending was strong in June, but the EW survey recovered only modestly in July. In Korea, the huge CA surplus rose further in May, but so did selling of domestic equities by foreigners.