Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock Regional data show three themes: 1) Differentiation: Japan strongest, Taiwan weakest; 3) Diversification in export markets: autos and DM holding up while tech and China remain weak; and 3) Desynchronisation: despite the weakness in exports and industry, services and retail sales are holding up. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock Regional data show three themes: 1) Differentiation: Japan strongest, Taiwan weakest; 3) Diversification in export markets: autos and DM holding up while tech and China remain weak; and 3) Desynchronisation: despite the weakness in exports and industry, services and retail sales are holding up. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Region – Taking stock A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Video A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation. Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Region – latest chart pack A chart pack summarising our current views Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public The East Asia Economist Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary. Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven. Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week The East Asia Econ weekly summary Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Last week, next week What happened on East Asia Econ last week. Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Taiwan – weak in January The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions. Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Region - a floor in Q1? Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid. Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Taiwan – contracting Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Japan – inflation back to 2% Import price inflation eased in December, suggesting CPI inflation falls below 2% YoY in 1H23. On this basis, the BOJ shouldn't be tightening. But having opened the door to change in December, the bank faces an enormous task if it wants to convince the market that rates aren't moving further. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Korea – last hike The BOK hiked again today, but the meeting gave strong hints that this is the last in the current cycle. The probability of a cut will likely start to grow in Q1, though for the BOK to actually do that, the bank will need more confidence that inflation is going to decline. Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
Paid Members Public Japan – sluggish recovery The EW survey of corporates and households continues to suggest modest recovery. It can be hoped that household sentiment improves from here as inflation comes down. That will be helped by the stronger JPY, though data released yesterday confirm very large JGB purchasing by the BOJ in December.
