The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
If the US-led global trend is a sort of reversion to mean, then Asia has two very differentiated dynamics. On the one hand, there's Japan and Taiwan, which look like breaking structurally to the upside. On the other, there's China, which is more sluggish than at any time in the last 30 years.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Our most out-of-consensus view is that Fed cuts are likely bad news for China's cycle. For Japan, we think the market needs to price in a bigger likelihood of another BOJ hike. The CBC in Taiwan likely stays on hold in the next few months, while the BOK looks set to cut soon.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Currency weakness boosting inflation has been a regional theme. But currency strength wouldn't automatically mean a CB policy pivot. That's true in Japan, where other factors have been driving prices, and in China, where currency weakness hasn't yet been an obvious obstacle to policy loosening.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
An update of our regional slide pack.
The PMIs suggest that the regional export cycle is gaining momentum. The lift is strongest in Taiwan, where the non-mfg PMI also lifted in June.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Given the confidence the bank has been expressing, the BOJ meeting this week was disappointing. By raising the RRR, Taiwan's CBC, by contrast, was somewhat hawkish.
A slide pack looking at cyclical and structural issues. The story is strongest in Japan and Taiwan; there's the potential for a break in trends in China; while we find Korea less interesting right now.
A refreshed slide pack looking at China today and the experience of Asia in the 1990s, with a focus on deflation and rates, exports and mfg, and household income and consumption.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
The regional mfg cycle is recovering, but gaps between official and S&P PMIs mean it is difficult to gauge strength. However, all surveys do point to a broad-based firming in input price inflation.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
In slides laying out a comparison with Korea, we argue that Taiwan's macroeconomy is close to a structural break to the upside. An export recovery that is as strong as has been priced in by equities would likely be the tipping point.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.