Subscribers Only
Region – monthly slide pack
An update of our regional slide pack.
Subscribers Only
Region – finally, some manufacturing strength
The PMIs suggest that the regional export cycle is gaining momentum. The lift is strongest in Taiwan, where the non-mfg PMI also lifted in June.
Members Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – BOJ and CBC
Given the confidence the bank has been expressing, the BOJ meeting this week was disappointing. By raising the RRR, Taiwan's CBC, by contrast, was somewhat hawkish.
Subscribers Only
Region – slide pack
A slide pack looking at cyclical and structural issues. The story is strongest in Japan and Taiwan; there's the potential for a break in trends in China; while we find Korea less interesting right now.
Members Only
Region – China and 1990s Asia
A refreshed slide pack looking at China today and the experience of Asia in the 1990s, with a focus on deflation and rates, exports and mfg, and household income and consumption.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – mfg recovery, but still modest
The regional mfg cycle is recovering, but gaps between official and S&P PMIs mean it is difficult to gauge strength. However, all surveys do point to a broad-based firming in input price inflation.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – Korea and Taiwan chart pack
In slides laying out a comparison with Korea, we argue that Taiwan's macroeconomy is close to a structural break to the upside. An export recovery that is as strong as has been priced in by equities would likely be the tipping point.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – monthly chart pack
Our monthly chart pack. Three themes stand out: the confidence of the BOJ; the significance of policy that tackles property inventories in China; and Taiwan remaining as the big post-covid winner.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – export recovery still mixed
The export cycle is recovering, but more in volume than value terms, and in Taiwan and China than Korea. This won't remove worries about weak consumption in Korea and China. But it likely is sufficient to keep Taiwan's economy tight, and the CBC will likely be hiking again if exports rise more.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
China – the test of PPI as a cycle
We are getting near a test of our thesis that PPI deflation in China is mainly cyclical, with global commodity prices suggesting a PPI recovery.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Members Only
Region – the structural rise in wages
Not just in Japan but Taiwan too, there are signs of a structural break from persistently low wage inflation. The implication is that the gap between nominal monetary settings between both and the US is likely to be narrower in the future than it has been in the past.