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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – as Korea, so the world?
Korea's trade surplus with China has collapsed, taking with it Korea's overall surplus. This offers a clear illustration of China's competitiveness, and argues for CNY strength, not weakness. But it also indicates that the relative fundamentals for the KRW are also deteriorating.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – PSL and PMIs
With the Markit PMI holding up and PSL funding rising, China doesn't look as bad as market sentiment. Exports in Korea and PMIs in Korea, Taiwan and Japan show the industrial cycle improving, but not quickly. For Japan and Korea, that can still be important given elevated non-manufacturing PMIs.
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Region –monthly chart pack
A slide pack summarising our recent research and views on the region
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – still only amber
TSMC's outlook for 2024 is bullish for the regional export cycle. But other export indicators are yet to validate that picture. There's enough to remain positive about the TWD. But it feels like there is some way to go before the export cycle can start to impact rate expectations in Taiwan and Korea
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Last week, this week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Lessons from Asia for China
A slide pack from a presentation on the lessons China can learn from the development experiences of other economies in the region
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – manufacturing cycle
Korea's PMI is now back at 50, but while Taiwan's remains below that level, the upside potential looks bigger. Taiwan domestic momentum also looks stronger. Inflation is higher in Korea, but the risk that the central bank has to raise rates again next year is probably a bit higher in Taiwan.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – slow export turn
Both Taiwan export orders for October and Korea exports for the first 20 days of Korea show YoY improvement. However, in level terms the recovery is less clear.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – export cycle inflecting
It looks more likely that the export cycle is improving. That is positive for currencies, particularly the TWD. For both Taiwan and Korea, it also raises the likelihood of rates being higher for longer.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – export upturn still patchy
The data are still patchy, but it does now look like the export cycle is starting to turn. Markit PMIs in Korea and Taiwan were better in October, and Korean exports rose for the first time in over a year. The turn is a little late, but could still be important for macro if it lasts into Q124.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – Taiwan leading exports
A summary of the regional export cycle. It looks like Taiwan's exports are starting to turn up, which would be significant given low unemployment and relatively high core inflation. There's not much movement yet in the rest of the region.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – tentative improvement
We have been hopeful that the export cycle would start to lift. But recent indicators don't look convincing. It still looks like the cycle is bottoming rather than really starting to improve.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.