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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – export cycle inflecting
It looks more likely that the export cycle is improving. That is positive for currencies, particularly the TWD. For both Taiwan and Korea, it also raises the likelihood of rates being higher for longer.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – export upturn still patchy
The data are still patchy, but it does now look like the export cycle is starting to turn. Markit PMIs in Korea and Taiwan were better in October, and Korean exports rose for the first time in over a year. The turn is a little late, but could still be important for macro if it lasts into Q124.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – Taiwan leading exports
A summary of the regional export cycle. It looks like Taiwan's exports are starting to turn up, which would be significant given low unemployment and relatively high core inflation. There's not much movement yet in the rest of the region.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – tentative improvement
We have been hopeful that the export cycle would start to lift. But recent indicators don't look convincing. It still looks like the cycle is bottoming rather than really starting to improve.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Japan – a hint of rising real wages
Headline inflation in Tokyo eased in September, but while inflation expectations remained firm, consumer confidence didn't fall much. That could be important, but we would be more confident about the implication of rising real wages if the labour market was also tightening.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – monthly chart pack
An update of our cyclical views, and summary of our recent structural work.
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Region – still no upturn in exports
There's still no sign of a rebound in the export cycle. With headline inflation picking up and labour markets tight in the region ex-China, further rate hikes are still possible. But tightening would be even more likely if exports were rebounding, as some of the leads have suggested is likely.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – cycle themes
Recent regional data have two clear themes: stronger inflation, and tight labour markets. The reversal in inflation is positive for macro sentiment in China. It has policy implications elsewhere, with a higher tightening risk. However, exports aren't yet rebounding.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – understanding Japan's 1990s stagnation
A summary of our thematic work so far looking at the Japan experience of the 1990s and its relevance for China today.
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Region – prices turning more than activity
Early data for August don't paint a convincing picture of a cycle that is about to turn up strongly. However, there is evidence that nominal activity has stopped worsening, and given current sentiment around China, even a second-derivative improvement is important.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – export cycle update
Export data are mixed, falling between our two leading indicators: a sentiment-based one, which suggests continued weakness, and one using FCI, which points to a big upturn. If the latter is right, we should see start to see improvements in the BSI for Korea and the PMI in Taiwan.
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Region – lessons from Japan
Earlier, we looked at the role of demographics in Japan's post-80s malaise. Today we study corporates, with Taiwan as a counterpoint. We conclude, again, that Japan's experience is more unique than generic. Even so, the impact of bubbles bursting – as in China's construction now – is long-lasting.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – monthly chart pack
Our monthly slide pack, going through the main themes for each economy, as well as a structural section focusing on demographics.