The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
Regional themes: continuing (and under-appreciated) nominal improvement in China; election uncertainty in Japan; strengthening export momentum in Korea on the back of chips; which in turn looks significant given the huge outperformance of Taiwan through 2025, all because of AI and semiconductors.
Today's official PMIs were below 50. That shows the domestic economy is weak – though the data were likely pulled down by the coming holiday. More interesting was the further rise in prices in manufacturing. That change relates to USD/global prices, but does suggest an upturn in nominal momentum.
With policy efforts reducing headline inflation, the bullish case for Japan is once again a rise in real wages that pushes up consumer spending and aggregate demand. The consumer confidence survey points to just that scenario, but it isn't in the hard data yet, with December retail sales still soft.
Today's data releases show the domestic economy bottoming out, but not yet growing much. The upside risk rests on 1) exports, which the BOK in its last official forecast thought would only grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2) capex, with Samsung and SK Hynix this week pledging big increases.
My latest video, discussing the work I've been doing looking at Japan's fiscal position.
Some of the slowdown in services PPI inflation is due to lower goods price inflation, but the combined result points to softer downstream inflation. SPPI inflation in high labour-intensive sectors is still over 3% YoY, but the recent MoM run-rate of under 2% is too low for the BOJ's inflation target
Headline business sentiment has improved to take the BOK back towards neutral. But the details are mixed, with Korea's recovery more K-shaped than it has been before. With the semi cycle lifting exports, the BOK is now unlikely to ease further, but the bank still needs to see more domestic recovery.
The BOJ's full outlook report that was released today includes analysis arguing that the pass-through from JPY to CPI has risen, reflecting not only greater direct effects, "but also stronger secondary spillover effects, such as more active wage- and price-setting behavior of firms"
Like the actual monthly deposit data, Friday's PBC Q425 depositor survey shows a slowing of the flood of household savings into the safety of bank deposits. The structural deflation pressure caused by the collapse of real estate activity and the chaos of the covid lockdowns is beginning to ease.
Is a ceiling forming for $Asia? Three developments are helpful: CNY fixing strengthening through 7; more US interest in Asia under-valuation; visible concern in Tokyo about weakness in both the JPY and JGBs.
At its meeting today, the BOJ was again more positive on the outlook, but only incrementally. However, the authorities overall have been trying to put a lid on market volatility, perhaps via intervention, but also an interview by Takaichi. Data, meanwhile, show the economy still has good momentum.
Today's Q4 GDP data show the economy contracted again late last year, and grew just 1% in 2025 as a whole. That partly reflects weak construction, but facilities capex is also weak. And yet, this week's Loan Officer Survey warns of no lasting slowdown in housing.
Most important for markets is today's Q4 data is the pick-up in the deflator and nominal GDP, which external trends suggest can run further. In terms of the details, the data show two big discrepancies: collapsing FAI v industrial stability, and falling retail sales v rising consumption share of GDP
Last week's most important release was China's USD100bn fx settlement data. Capital inflows will boost money supply. A stronger CNY should also help support regional currencies. The impact is overshadowed by politics in Japan, but should be more powerful in Korea and Taiwan given the semi boom.
Some of the signs of domestic stabilisation I'd been tracking in 2025 faded into year-end. However, they didn't disappear entirely. China is also starting to benefit from the global tailwinds of weaker USD and rising commodity prices, creating upside risks for China's nominal cycle.
China's release today of December data for money, credit and fx settlement tell three stories: domestic savings outflows have lost momentum, credit ex-government is looking a bit stronger, and capital inflows are really picking up. If right, the last dynamic is the most important for markets.
The BOK isn't getting carried away by the remarkable rise in semiconductor prices, but it did today say the chip cycle is moving growth risks to the upside. It also terminated talk of rate cuts, though that isn't just about growth, with the bank making clear that KRW weakness is a key consideration.
Japan's current run of PPI inflation is almost the longest since at least the 1980s, but looks well-supported. Prices have recoupled with the global cycle, and are being boosted by JPY weakness. Furthermore, while it was feared that tariffs would be deflationary, export prices are rising.
Domestic sluggishness and financial stability concerns aren't changing, so likely keep the BOK on hold tomorrow. But there is a new development: the 10x rise in the DRAM price. To me, that is shifting cycle risks to the upside. Tomorrow's meeting will be important if that is the bank's view too.
Using an update of my regional chartpack to think about exchange rates. Specifically, I think the cycle and structure dynamics are moving risk-reward in favour of Asian currencies. I'd argue that is true if the global picture is unchanged, but it could also be true if conditions in the US falter.
Themes: capital flows v CNY appreciation in China; fiscal fear v real policy rate in Japan; foreign v domestic equity strength in Korea; policy status quo v export surge in Taiwan.
Even with data today showing a dip in exports in December, Taiwan's trade surplus last year reached the sort of sky-high levels last seen before the big TWD appreciation of the 1980s. Barring a real dislocation in AI hardware demand, underlying pressure for renewed appreciation will grow in 2026.
The second-derivative improvement in inflation is continuing, and should be seen in a better deflator when the Q4 GDP data are released later this month. However, there's not yet enough to think the trend can persist beyond Q126. One factor that could derail the improvement would be a stronger CNY.
November BOP data show another big current account surplus – and more big outflows into offshore equities. We can't be sure that outflows have yet peaked. But with the KRW cheap, semi exports gaining momentum and the government taking KRW stabilisation measures, risk around the currency are shifting
My latest video, discussing the lessening of deflationary pressure, whether that can continue, and what the implications are for markets.