China – importing only semi There's quite a contrast between the sense of domestic manufacturing capex boom, and the lack of any rise in imports of capital goods outside of semi.
China – auto exports sideways There are many reasons to expect a new wave of Chinese EVs to the world, but the last one arguably peaked in 2022, and another has yet to appear.
Taiwan – TSMC's outlook still positive for exports TSMC yesterday was less bullish on semi as a whole in 2024, but its own unchanged sales outlook still suggests a strong year for Taiwan exports
Japan – finally, some rental inflation It still isn't even at 0.2% YoY, but rental CPI is now rising the fastest since the 1990s, which is pulling up imputed rent too. Together, they account for almost 20% of the basket.
China – no change in buyer sentiment It is remarkable, given the big mortgage rate cuts and everything else thrown at the property market, that buyer sentiment just gets worse and worse.
Japan – tourism diversification The cheap JPY isn't boosting Japan's merchandise exports, but it has helped with a sharp recovery in tourism, even though arrivals from China remain subdued.
Taiwan – so far, only TSMC The recent recovery in the mfg cycle has been underwhelming. One reason is its narrowness: sales at TSMC are up, but for the rest of the listed are flat.
Japan – part-time wages up The shunto is important for regular workers, but part-time workers are now also getting decent pay rises, a real sign that the labour market is tightening.
Japan – no JPY boost to export volumes The cheap JPY is boosting Japan's tourist inflows, but there continue to be no signs of the currency helping merchandise exports.
China – net exports boost growth China doesn't release detailed GDP by expenditure data, but the available snippets show Q1 outperformance was due to net exports.
China – savings rate falling Consumer sentiment does remain low in China, but it is encouraging that income growth has picked up, while the savings rate is coming down.
China – slower in March The consensus on China has improved in recent weeks, but there's nothing in the Q1 activity release to reinforce that shift.
China – property activity falls even further There's just no floor for property. Starts fell again in March and are now 65% below the 2020 peak, and barely above the low of late 2008.
China – the gap in metals prices There's a growing divergence between ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and that shows the contrast between weak property and strong manufacturing activity.
China – official property px no worse Official data show property price deflation isn't worsening. Private measures suggest the same thing, though anecdotes suggest actual market conditions are much weaker
Region – import px disinflation ending Korean data today continue the clear turn in regional import prices of recent months. This will matter for inflation, even in China.
China – PBC prudence Today's PBC action to drain liquidity for the second consecutive month via the MLF follows a big run-up in 2H23. Still, it does show that the bank remains a cautious easer.
Japan – machine orders still subdued The BOJ uses machine orders as a lead for machinery investment. Data show Feb was stronger, but not by enough to lift the 3mma by much.
Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Taiwan – wage growth holding up Wage growth did slow in 2023, but that looks cyclical, not breaking the higher rate of trend growth that's been apparent since the pandemic.
China – mortgage lending bottoms out We can be increasingly confident that mortgage lending has bottomed out. But there aren't any signs of a rebound.