The big shift in Korea's BOP since 2020 has been the rise in overseas buying of equities. That outflow surged anew in October to a record high, and by offsetting the large current account surplus, has helped keep $KRW near record highs.
In advance of next week's release of CPI and PPI data in China, some thoughts on the outlook, which I think shows a lessening deflation. Also, an update on visitor arrivals in the region (strong in Japan, weak in Taiwan), and weekly flow data in Japan.
High-frequency data show upstream prices remained stable in November, while food prices have been rising. The combination points to a further lessening of headline deflation. I doubt that signals a real turn in nominal growth, though there are now some upside risks.
China's November S&P services PMI didn't confirm the weakness seen in the official version. S&P today also released its services PMI for Japan. That sent the same message as other sentiment surveys: far from weakening, economic momentum in Japan is improving. Also today, my latest video and podcast.
My latest video, focusing on Taiwan and Korea, and a podcast in which I discuss the outlook for the broader region.
Japan's consumers like what they are seeing of Sanae Takaichi, with another bounce in confidence in November. That removes another reason for BOJ caution. In Korea, inflation remains at around 2%, but services inflation – a better measure of domestically generated price pressures – is higher.
The BOK says the rise in headline CPI inflation to 2.4% the last couple of months is temporary, and that core is stable. That isn't an unreasonable assessment. However, I'd continue to highlight the strength of services inflation, which remains firm reltive to ongoing labour market weakness.
The big policy event today was BOJ Governor Ueda's speech, which further increased the likelihood of a near-term hike. In terms of data, Japan released quarterly profits data (strong in non-manufacturing) and weak PMIs for the region contrasted with strong semiconductor export data for Korea.
The mfg PMIs across the region mainly remain below 50. That shows that conditions outside of semiconductors remain poor. Semi is strong, and in Korean in export data for November, are departing from a normal cycle. Goods input prices pressures are rebounding, reflecting weak currencies.
The tone of governor Ueda's speech today suggests a rate hike is close. He claims that risks to the US are receding, identifies five recent positive wage developments, and with firms' price and wage behaviour changing, argues that exchange rate changes are more likely to affect prices.
The main themes: stabilisation in China, but the picture is muddy; the discrepancy between clear economic boom in Taiwan versus stability in inflation and TWD; upside risks in Korea that still look like risks than reality; the BOJ facing a real fiscal boost when the economy is already recovering.
The official composite output PMI in November fell below 50. That wasn't because of FAI: the industrial PMIs were stable. Rather, it was weakness in services. That is puzzling. For now, the one concrete indicator from today's inflation is actually positive: deflation isn't getting worse.
Today's charts cover October services trade and the implications for China's GDP growth in Q4; Tokyo inflation (showing stronger rents), and retail sales in Japan; weak October activity in Korea; and yet another round of strong GDP data in Taiwan.
In today's GDP release, the government raised estimated growth for Q1, Q2, and Q3. The FY forecast was raised by almost 3ppts to 7.4%. But because of AI, officials remain bullish about the outlook, and so raised the forecast for 2026 as well, And yet, none of this is expected to impact inflation.
The BOK's revisions to the GDP outlook yesterday were modest. But in today's October output data, there's little sign of any improvement at all. The data are affected by the long Chuseok holiday, and will likely look better through year-end. Still, it is clear the economy still faces headwinds.
The big event today was the BOK meeting. The bank was a bit more constructive on the outlook, but data that was separately released show labour market conditions remaining weak. Elsewhere, profits in China are flat-lining, exports in Japan aren't dropping, and macro data in Taiwan remain strong.
The BOK didn't raise growth forecasts above potential, but still signalled some concern about the resilience of inflation. That sounds a touch stagflationary, and was used to justify a step back from its loosening stance. Growth only gets above potential in its chip-driven upside scenario.
Some thoughts on Korea in light of today's business sentiment survey, and before tomorrow's BOK meeting. Also, today's services PPI inflation for Japan. The details were mixed, but the BOJ anyway seems to be sending the message (again) that while the JPY is so weak, it is headline CPI that matters.
Headline SPPI inflation was stable in October, but weak for high labour-intensive sectors, while part-time wages were strong, likely on the back of the minimum wage hike. That's an unclear picture. But right now, with the JPY so weak, the BOJ will focus more on headline CPI than these messy details.
I doubt the BOK can raise '26 growth forecasts above its estimate of potential and so shift its loosening stance. What's the wriggle room around that? 1) It says the memory cycle means risks are skewed to the upside 2) Citing financial stability risks, more members suggest rates won't change.
Both consumer sentiment and house price expectations in Korea were firm in November. That's significant, when consumer fiscal handouts are winding down, while macro-pru measures on housing have been stepped up. In Taiwan, the consumer mood is also improving, with retail sales rising in October.
That high-frequency upstream prices in China through mid-November are stable offers an important contrast with the weakness of FAI. In Taiwan, the labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate staying at the lowest levels in over 20 years.
The FAI data point to the economy hitting a wall. But price data don't bear that out. Indeed, upstream prices show the recent stability of PPI is likely persisting. That is also true for the demand:time deposit ratio. The cycle as a whole remains both weak and messy, but there are some green shoots.
Japan is doing macro stimulus when the cycle really doesn't need it. China isn't doing any when the cycle still does. The first keeps the JPY weak. The second prevents the CNY from appreciating. Both in turn weigh on the KRW and TWD, despite substantial current account surpluses across the region.
The big releases today were Japan CPI and trade for October and November PMIs, and Korean October PPI and exports for the first 20 days of November. Also, a longer note on Korean capital flows, and an update of the detailed trade data for China shown in our interactive dashboard.