Public Post Japan – households lead sentiment lower There was quite a big fall in the EW survey in April, a warning that recent JPY volatility might be pushing up inflation expectations again.
Public Post Japan – another weak consumption indicator While a bit stronger than the beginning of this year, the household survey shows real consumption spending still 2% lower than in 2019.
Public Post China – construction up, manufacturing down Another chart that challenges the idea that the structure of China's economy has changed much. Relative to GDP, construction is rebounding, while manufacturing is falling.
Public Post Japan – no consumption recovery yet PMIs, CPI, wages, profits....most macro indicators look positive. The one weak spot remains consumption, with little sign of improvement through March.
Public Post China – moderate export recovery Underlying trade values show the moderate export recovery that began in mid-23 is continuing, while imports are flat-lining.
Public Post Taiwan – export recovery falters in April The nominal export recovery across the region has lost momentum, with Taiwan's April exports fading YoY and MoM.
Public Post China – has anything really changed? It is often thought that China is transforming into a mfg-led, services-light economy. Relative growth did slow post-15. However, as a proportion of GDP, the services sector has never been bigger.
Public Post Region – perhaps the weak KRW helps as well It seems reasonable to think the cheap JPY is contributing to Japan's tourism boom. But Korea's visitor numbers are also closing in on pre-covid levels. Recovery in Taiwan, by contrast, is lagging.
Public Post Taiwan – inflation still firm Headline inflation dropped below 2% YoY in April, and core eased too. But underlying services inflation – a proxy for domestically generated price pressures – remains at almost 3%, a near 30-year high.
Public Post China – PPI flat Prices might be drifting down a bit, and there's big product differences (steel weak, copper strong), but high-frequency data don't suggest any real deflation emanating from China's industrial sector.
Public Post Japan – "Charge inflation hits a 10-yr high" The PMI shows strong services momentum and prices charged rising "at its steepest since April 2014...reflecting another sharp rise in input costs....which was mostly linked to greater salary payments."
Public Post China – PBC balance sheet expansion slows PSL lending, which seemed like it might become a thing for 20204, hasn't: yesterday's April data showed no new lending, so with previous loans maturing, PSL outstanding has fallen back again.
Public Post China – solid services growth The S&P PMI shows China's services sector continues to grow at a solid rate. The outlook also remains firm, with new business growing in April by the quickest rate in almost a year.
Public Post Japan – weak consumption isn't just wages The market focus in on real wages, but the elderly are even worse off than workers, the result of a policy of deliberately cutting pensions in real terms.
Public Post China – the end of PPI deflation There continue to be signs that PPI inflation will turn positive in the next couple of months. That will ease an important source of investor concern.
Public Post China – property weakness still key The PBC's Q1 depositor surveys show that it is less consumption sentiment per se that is weak than consumer price and property expectations. In this context, the news that the Politburo is studying ways to reduce property inventories is potentially significant for the macrocycle this year.
Public Post Japan – consumer confidence holding up Rather than a currency crisis, the importance of the weaker JPY for the macroeconomy is via the purchasing power of consumers. In this respect, April consumer confidence isn't too bad: down a bit, but still well up from the lows.
Public Post China – house price expectations still falling The PBC's Q1 urban depositor survey shows the housing market still hasn't bottomed, with price expectations falling to yet another new low in the survey's history.
