East Asia Econ

I am catching up with things after my break. Surveys of the last few days and today's trade data for August show tariffs aren't yet triggering a big macro dislocation in Japan. That's important for the BOJ. In China, the macro data for August show the bottoming of the activity remains fragile.

In today's summary: for Japan, wages, consumer activity, and 20D exports ; and for Taiwan, FX reserves and price data. Also, one more thing to note: I will be away from a few days from Monday. The next daily update will be on Wednesday 17th September.

High-frequency price data continue to show deflation in China is as much about weak aggregate demand in construction as over-supply in manufacturing. Elsewhere, BOK BOP data show NPS buying continues to create capital outflows, offsetting the KRW impact of the structural CA surplus.

Today, top-down and bottom-up data in Korea show wage growth still slowing; the August S&P services PMI in China rose, but also reported continued pricing pressure; and the services PMI in Japan remained firm, which continues the narrative of a cycle led more by domestic than external developments.

The only major data release today was August inflation in Korea. The headlines moved a lot, but the underlying picture was stable. In Japan, BOJ deputy governor Himino gave an interesting speech. In China, a reminder of the drivers of deflation and how they might be changing.

As usual, the first day of the month is busy for data, with PMIs across the region, and also Korean export data for August, and Q2 corporate profits in Japan. The picture painted is a regional manufacturing cycle that remains soft, but hasn't been delivered a new blow by tariffs.

It's been a big week for data in Korea, and there was more today, with the end-month activity numbers. Retail sales bounced, but other sectors remained subdued. Data for Japan today showed retail sales being weak, but consumer confidence has improved, and UE has fallen to a new post-covid low.

Today's big event was Korea's MPC, and the separate release of the local version of JOLTS data. In Japan, July unit sales at Toyota and nationwide exports in the first 10 days of August were stable. Taiwan's monitoring index in July was also unchanged, suggesting GDP growth has slowed, but not much.

Today my focus was again Korea, with the important business sentiment survey for August, and a longer review of the cycle before tomorrow's BOK meeting. Elsewhere, China released profits data for July (weak again) and there was August consumer confidence in Taiwan (also soft).

In today's update, a slowdown in upstream services price inflation in Japan, and firm property price expectations in the Korean consumer confidence survey. In Taiwan, retail sales are still falling, while IP shows the industrial sector is now also starting to lose some momentum.

BOJ Governor Ueda's Jackson Hole remarks at the weekend on the labour market have relevance for interest rates in Japan, and, given demographic trends, economics more broadly in the region. Also, an update on high-frequency price data in China.

The CPI release in Japan was the most important today, showing the three main measures of inflation moving in different directions. In addition, labour market data in Taiwan show the unemployment rate continuing to creep lower.

Today's main releases were in Korea, with trade data for the first 20 days of August, and July PPI. S&P released the flash August PMI for Japan. Also, some charts on foreign trade and monetary data in China from the detailed releases that follow the headline data published earlier in the month.

Quite a lot today, starting with a longer thematic piece on the outlook for Japanese consumption. In terms of the cycle, there's June machine orders and July exports for Japan, and July export orders and Q2 BOP data for Taiwan.

Korea's Q2 household debt release is important, given it is such an important issue for BOK thinking about monetary policy in the short-term, and the economy in the longer-term. The structural issues facing Korea are nicely analysed in a BOK report looking at the similarities with Japan.

No major releases today, but a few bits and pieces from China: the falls in interest rates and shifts in loan structure shown in the PBC's Friday monetary policy report; the re-acceleration in auto exports in today's detailed trade data; and signs of capital inflows in Friday's settlement data.

Many updates today. In China, property prices and the outlook for CPI, as well as the official activity data for July. The overall tone remains weak. By contrast, the first estimate of Q2 GDP data for Japan was solid. And detailed Q2 data for Taiwan, together with 2H25 forecasts, were more bullish.

Price data for Korea's foreign trade shows the same trends as for Japan: import prices falling YOY, and auto export prices dropping MoM. Also, China's monetary and credit data from yesterday. The rise in the credit impulse lost momentum, but stabilisation in the M1:M2 ratio is holding.

In Japan, July PPI, including export and import prices, as well as the Reuters Tankan for August. In addition, Korea labour market indicators for July.

There were no data releases today. So instead, an app showing changes in China's global market share; a recap of regional exports, where the standout isn't China but rather Taiwan; and the big shifts in the direction of Taiwan's trade, with surging exports to the US, and surging imports from Korea.

In today's summary, the PPI and CPI data that China released at the weekend, and Q2 current account data from Friday; today's export data from for the first 10 days of August in Korea; and Taiwan's wage data for June.

Some charts motivated by a nice BOK report on super-ageing; bits and pieces on Japan including the EW survey and recent rice prices; and more crazily strong export data in Taiwan.

China's foreign trade data for July, where I think imports are more interesting than exports; consumption trends for Japan in June; and Korea's BOP data, also for June, which showed the NPS outflow remaining large.

Until this year, there'd been similarities in post-pandemic inflation dynamics between Japan and Taiwan. Now, differences are emerging. In Japan, wage growth, already, firm, has reaccelerated. In Taiwan, the main dynamic is the sharp rise in the TWD is pushing the prices of tradeables down.

Today's update covers Korea CPI and Taiwan fx resrevss, and the services PMIs for Japan and China.