East Asia Econ

A longer note on the implications of the chip boom for China. Also today, the BOJ's charts on underlying inflation, which show the bank's preferred measure of core rising to 2.8% YoY. IP growth in Taiwan slowed in April, but remains at over 20% YoY, and the recovery in retail sales is continuing.

Today has been quiet for data releases. The main indicator of cyclical importance is 10-day upstream price data for China, which show an easing of inflation pressure since May. Elsewhere, Taiwan tourist arrivals data continue to lag behind the big recoveries seen in Korea and Japan.

A few things on Japan today: CPI and export data in April, and Koeda's interesting speech yesterday. Consumer confidence in Korea rebounded in May, but property price expectations also firmed. Taiwan's labour market remains tight, with unemployment firmly pinned at the 20-year low of 3.3%.

Machine orders in March and trade in April show Japan's cycle doing well before the war; the PMI for May points to deterioration since, and yet higher inflation. April PPI shows inflation going higher in Korea too, but strong exports so far through May show downside risks to overall growth are less.

Today's main data releases were in Taiwan: another enormous CA surplus in Q1, which strong export orders for April suggest isn't about to decline much in Q2. Japan's May Reuters Tankan was solid, but the outlook weak. Finally, some charts from my China trade dashboard, available on the website.

Japan GDP for Q1 and services output for March were both firm, but there are clear downside risks because of the War. Korean quarterly household loan growth accelerated, which adds to the reasons for the BOK to be hawkish. Also today, my latest podcast, in which I discuss these and other issues.

A lot on China today, with the release of the main official economic indicators for April, Friday's BOP data for Q1, and today's fx settlement figures. Also, an update on the implications for Taiwan of Trump's interview to Fox news following his summit with Xi Jinping.

Highlights of a longer note exploring why China's imports have suddenly picked up so sharply. Also, some analysis of trade price data for Korea and Japan: import prices in both are rising fast, but it is export prices increasing at record-breaking rates. Finally, yesterday's monetary data in China.

A quick review of inflation trends in China, with the release today of upstream price data for the first 20 days of May. Also, highlights of the speech by BOJ policy board member Masu Kazuyuki.

A longer piece on how the impact of pricier energy imports is being offset by big increases in electronics export prices. Today's data releases showed competing cycle indicators in Japan: strong bank lending versus a weak EW survey. Some contradictions also in Korea, with low UE, but soft wages too.

Signs of less loosening in China, in both the PBC monetary policy report for Q126, and the April release of the central bank's liquidity operations. In Japan, the summary of the April MPC show more pressure to tighten. Consumption data for March and trade data for early April were stable.

China CPI and PPI data for April showed a further strengthening of inflation. Korea's trade data for the first 10 days of May indicate no slowdown in semi exports (or rise in energy imports). Data for Taiwan through March point to a slowdown in wage growth in recent months.

Korea March data finally showed a fall in offshore buying by residents, only to be replaced by domestic selling by foreigners. Taiwan's April trade data show limited Iran impact. Japan wage growth in March was strong, but only at the headline level. And my latest video, on why Taiwan macro matters.

Highlights of longer notes on the regional outlook, and growth trends in Korea. Also, a summary of today's inflation data in Taiwan, where import prices are rising, but export prices are too. Finally, high-frequency upstream price data in China, and the April monetary base update in Japan.

The S&P/RatingDog PMI suggests China's services sector is doing much better than is indicated by the official version. Korean CPI data for April today showed the impact of the energy price spike has so far been modest. Taiwan's fx reserves last month bounced after the fall in March.

Some charts from today's longer piece looking at the BOJ's analysis of inflation in its outlook report last week. Obviously, the BOJ's big focus was the impact of Iran, so also today some charts looking at the direct feedthrough from oil prices into pump prices and CPI across the region.

The main releases today were Korea and Taiwan PMIs. In terms of prices, the surveys show clear inflation pressure. For growth, the message is more mixed; firmer PMIs in part reflect supply disruptions. But exports still look strong, and in Taiwan, the non-mfg PMI has risen too.

Three longer pieces today: on the regional chip cycle, Japan in the run-up to next week's BOJ meeting, and a video discussing two macro puzzles in Korea. Also, charts summarising today's three data releases: upstream prices in China, and in Japan, CPI and services PPI.

Taiwan's export orders and IP in March were strong. Exports in Korea's Q1 GDP likewise show the continued strength of the semiconductor cycle, and Japan's April manufacturing PMI also rose. By contrast, domestic demand and consumer indicators across the region are weaker.

Japan's trade data for March show some of the trends seen elsewhere in the region: strong semiconductor sales, and as yet, no big rise in energy imports. In Korea, goods PPI signals further rises in goods CPI, and the BOK's loan officer survey warns of a rebound in lending to the household sector.

A longer note today on whether the recent lessening of deflation in China is sustainable. I think it might be. Also, data for the first 20 days of April in Korea showing continued chip export strength, and the SLO survey for Japan indicating stable lending standards.

China's detailed data show chip exports and imports well up in March and imports from the Middle East sharply down. EV exports weren't strong, but shipments of solar panels were. Elsewhere, Japan services activity remains strong. Consumers are happy about incomes, but still worried about prices.

China's detailed Q1 GDP data aren't obviously consistent. By expenditure, net exports were down while investment were up. But by industry, manufacturing rose while construction contracted. Across the region, the decline in oil prices will be welcome, but government energy subsidies remain large.

Two things today. First, China's big data releases, which show broad macro stabilisation. Second, TSMC's quarterly earnings. Management comments were positive again, forecasting revenue growth of over 30% this year. That has read through for total exports and Taiwan's overall economy.

Lots of data today – fx settlement for China, machine orders and the Reuters Tankan in Japan, import and export prices and labour market data in Korea, and wages in Taiwan.