East Asia Econ

Lots of sentiment surveys to discuss today: business confidence in Korea (better), consumer confidence in Japan (also better, even though inflation expectations remain high) and Q3 economy-wide surveys for China. Also, some details of China's 15th FYP, with some encouraging language on consumption.

Today's focus is Korea, with consumer confidence and GDP, and yesterday's loan officer survey. Elsewhere, the BOJ has published its own cuts of trade and CPI data. That includes "underlying inflation", though these days the bank itself seems to believe reality is more complicated.

The headlines are dominated by Trump's Asia trip. But there's also been lots of data released: industrial profits in China, services PPI in Japan, and consumer confidence in Taiwan. Export price data for China have also appeared, and echo the stability seen in the data for the rest of the region.

Japan CPI data showed headline near 3% and rising (inflation!), but core near 1% and falling (deflation!). Price data in China, by contrast, are stable, which is at odds with weak FAI. Finally, my updated trade mapper dashboard, which now covers autos and the battery and rare earth supply chains.

China's detailed monetary data for September are important, showing three positive trends. Elsewhere, the BOK didn't change policy, with just hints of becoming more positive. In Taiwan, IP and retail sales data for September continue to show the desynchronisation of the export and domestic cycles.

Lots of data to analyse today: exports in Japan, PPI in Korea, and export orders (released yesterday for Taiwan). Also, a longer piece taking stock of the Korean cycle and thinking about the BOK before tomorrow's monetary policy meeting.

Detailed Q3 GDP data for China don't provide much extra clarity. By contrast, yesterday's speech by Takata of the BOJ was a clear argument of why he thinks the bank needs to hike. In Korea, data for the first 20D of October show strong growth in exports of semiconductors, but not in anything else.

Little sign of change in today's China macro data. So, while areas like consumption aren't as weak as the headlines suggest, in activity data overall there's little sign of stabilisation, let alone recovery. I discussed some of the issues around China, as well as the region, in a podcast last week.

Korea's labour market looks better, though sustainable recovery likely needs stronger business confidence. Other data suggest an end to the sharp price falls for Korean auto exports to the US. Cars are unusual: in neither Korea nor the other economies have overall export prices been as volatile.

Three things important for markets: yesterday's monetary data from China, today's speech by BOJ Board member Naoki Tamura, and TSMC's Q3 earnings report. In addition, Japan released service-sector data and machine orders for August.

A couple of notes on China today, one covering today's inflation release, and the other a slide pack making the case for higher rates. Elsewhere, Taiwan released FDI data for September. Outflows have eased in recent months, but the clear shift away from investing in China is persisting.

An update on pensions in Japan, which are being cut in real terms. Also, wage growth in Taiwan, which is accelerating. The pick-up is mild, but is still important, showing that the near-deflation experience of 2000-2020 isn't being repeated.

China full-month exports for September (still strong), and Korean exports for the first 10 days of October (including only 3.5 working days, so too few to reach strong conclusions). Also, the new monthly summary of PBC liquidity operations, showing steady balance sheet expansion.

Two releases from the BOJ today, one showing PPI inflation remaining firm, and the other, its consumer confidence survey, indicating that the firmness of inflation continues to erode household sentiment. Also today, an update on China's inflation in advance of next week's releases for September.

The only data release today was Taiwan trade for September, which showed exports finally gave back some of the amazing strength seen this year. Also, some charts on how global commodity prices affect the region.

Even though Governor Ueda didn't in the end deliver the speech he was initially due to give today, there have been plenty of developments in Japan: wage data, business sentiment surveys, and household incomes. Elsewhere, Taiwan reported inflation data for September.

Today's data releases show fx reserves in China rising, providing further evidence of the resumption of capital inflows. In Japan, the BOJ's preferred measure of consumption weakened in August. In September, the monetary base also fell, but exports look to have stabilised.

Today's main event was Japan's markets pricing in Takaichi's victory, likened to an Abenomics 2.0 of fiscal and monetary loosening. But in Abenomics 1.0, fiscal policy wasn't loosened. And today's BOJ regional report, showing the cycle intact, doesn't allow much room for monetary loosening.

For a second day, there's most to report in Japan, with a speech from Ueda, the services PMI, labour market data and an updated output gap. With most of the surveys now in for September, we can also update regional comparisons of the soft data.

Yesterday's summary release of the Tankan showed price pressures remaining firm. That message is a bit stronger still in today's comprehensive release. Despite rising prices, consumer confidence edged up in September. Elsewhere, NPS outflows in Korea continue to offset the large CA surplus.

As usual on the 1st of the month, today there's the PMIs and full-month trade data from Korea, as well as the Q4 Tankan for Japan. The regional manufacturing cycle is soft, but Japan non-manufacturing is strong, the Korean PMI bounced, and weak PMIs haven't mattered for actual growth in Taiwan.

Today's September PMIs in China were mixed (construction PMI weak, S&P services firm), and Japan's August retail sales fell. There should have been more data, but Korea's stats website is still down following a fire, and after a holiday, Taiwan's consumer confidence survey has yet to appear.

A quiet day for domestic macro today. The only data release was Saturday's profits data in China. In Japan, MPC member Asahi Noguchi gave a speech, in which he made a couple of interesting points, but governor Ueda's speech at the end of the week will obviously matter more.

The main releases today were business confidence in Korea (weak) and September inflation for Tokyo (noisy). Also today, services exports for August for China, which offer further evidence that the boost to GDP from net exports is fading, and leading indicators for Taiwan which remain solid.

Some more information on inflation in Japan, with services PPI inflation for August, weekly rice prices into September, and the minutes of the July BOJ meeting. And from yesterday, August IP and retail sales data in Taiwan.