East Asia Econ

Highlights of a longer note summarising Korea's cycle before the BOK meeting tomorrow. Also today, Korea's IIP position in 2025, as well as services PPI inflation in Japan and labour market data for Taiwan in January.

A few charts from a longer slidepack looking at the remarkable changes in Taiwan's economy since 2020, details of consumer confidence and PPI in Korea, and export volume data for Japan for January.

Because of the new year holiday, the trade data across the region for the first couple of months are a bit suspect. That's particularly true when the data don't even cover the full month. Still, in the first 20 days of February, Korean chip exports, and shipments to China, look strong.

Japan's economy is looking different in 2026, with manufacturing sentiment improving, goods inflation easing, but service price and wage inflation holding up. Korea, meanwhile, faces some of the same issues as in 2025: while household debt is easing, property price inflation isn't.

Highlights of a longer note looking at the impact of China "shocks" through the prism of the terms of trade. The conclusion is that for Asia, the second China shock is shaping up to be less damaging than the first. Also, summary charts of today's machine orders in Japan, which were strong.

With most of the region still on holiday, today's daily focuses on today's export release from Japan. The big rise in January, led by shipments to China, will largely be the result of holiday front-loading. But the general direction is for exports and manufacturing to be a bit stronger in 2026.

December services activity in Japan dipped. But that is likely temporary: service sector sentiment remains strong, and falling China tourism has been offset by more visitors from Korea. Details of Taiwan's Q4 GDP release shows the terms of trade boosting real national income per capita by 15% in Q4.

Today's headline Q4 GDP data for Japan were weak, but the details were better, and the 2026 outlook remains better. The weekend's high-frequency price data for China – the last release before the holiday – indicates the lessening of PPI deflation continued through the first 10 days of February.

Lots of data releases across the region today. Two themes stand out: 1) Rising CA external surpluses and inflows, with the latest indicators coming from China and 2) improving terms of trade, seen in Korea's export/import price data for December, and Taiwan's Q4 GDP release.

Today's main release was PPI in Japan, with the most interesting takeaway being higher export prices. In Korea, weekly prices show food and energy inflation softening so far in February. Data in China show interest rates for mortgages stabilising, but continuing to decline for firms.

China's CPI inflation dipped in January, but that was holiday-related. PPI,by contrast, rose MoM for the second consecutive month. Labour market data in Korea isn't getting worse, but is sluggish. By contrast, Taiwan wage growth in 2025 reached the highest since 2000. Also today, my latest video.

A longer note on Korean household savings and consumption. To put that in context, this daily includes charts giving the regional picture over the last 30 years. The only cyclical indicator released today was TSMC's sales for January, which were strong, but might not mean much given LNY distortions.

Lots of data in Japan today, which again show the cycle warming up, and that Takaichi's economic inheritance is very different from that of Abe almost 15 years ago. Taiwan's trade data are distorted by LNY, so stronger sales to China, and of non-semi products, are interesting, not conclusive.

Korea's December BOP data show a big CA surplus – but even bigger capital outflows. Japan's exports data for the first 20 days of January perked up, but consumption in December slowed. Also today, a link to the EAE data API, which now allows access to almost 700,000 data series.

Weekly flow data show a moderation of overseas bond acquisitions by Japanese buyers – but that don't show whether they are now selling overseas and buying JGBs. FX reserve accumulation in Taiwan remains modest. Inflation fell in January, but that is related to Chinese New Year.

China's S&P services PMI was solid again in January, and Japan's was strong. High-frequency data for China suggest PPI was unchanged MoM in January for the seventh consecutive month. That stability reflects global factors, but also domestic policy, with the PBC last month again increasing liquidity.

Japan's monetary base continues to shrink, though it is still at 90% of GDP. CPI inflation in Korea remains around the 2% target, and given the outlook for exports, is now unlikely to fall further.

Korea's January exports were boosted by workdays and chips. However, the rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Japan, Korea and Taiwan last month suggest some broadening of the cycle. China's PMIs were more mixed. They did show better nominal momentum, but that lift reflected global metals prices.

Lots of cycle updates today, with all the month-end data for Japan and Korea, as well as Q4 GDP data for Taiwan, which was another blow-out. China's main data release today showed service exports rising, though not nearly as quickly as exports of goods.

Japan consumer confidence and export data show a further lessening of the two big negative shocks of 2025. Consumer confidence has bounced in Korea too, but that isn't based on a strengthening labour market. Also today, an announcement: subscribers can now access all our data via an API.

In light of Trump's threats against South Korea, an update on tariff levels in the region. Levies on China are highest, but China's USD export prices have been rangebound for 18M, and the stability of PPI in 2H25 has continued into 2026. Finally, my latest video discussing fiscal fear in Japan.

Data releases everywhere today: industrial profits in China; services PPI inflation in Japan; business sentiment through February in Korea; and Taiwan's leading indicator and consumer confidence.

An update on visitor arrivals across the region, the quarterly household, business and banker sentiment surveys from the PBC, and insights from the BOJ's full outlook report that was released today.

The BOJ didn't say much new today, but the authorities overall did make more of an attempt to put a lid on recent market volatility. In Korea, both consumer confidence and house price expectations remain strong. Taiwan retail sales slowed into end 2025, but IP took another step up.

Exports and the BOJ's senior loan officer survey in Japan; lending standards and Q4 GDP in Korea; and Taiwan's labour market data for December.