Korean export growth for the first 20 days of July accelerated again to over 60%, led by semiconductors, which in turn produced a further widening of the trade surplus. In Taiwan, export orders in June also grew near 60% YoY, and rose in level terms to a new all-time high.

Detailed data for June show the huge impact that global demand for AI hardware is having on China's trade data. In Taiwan, export volumes softened in June and Q2, which is important, though the strength of TSMC's June sales and Q2 results commentary don't suggest the cycle is coming to an end yet.

A Japan outlook piece, arguing that the BOJ is likely to be more hawkish than the market expects given an improving economic outlook, and assuming no new negative shock. Also, results of Japan's senior loan officer survey, and data in China showing continued strong capital inflows in June.

In China, yesterday's monetary data and today's detailed Q2 GDP release. In Japan, the BOJ's consumer survey showing a further rise in inflation expectations. In addition, a hawkish BOK meeting, motivated by the strong semi cycle, which, with bullishness commentary from TSMC, still seems intact.

Longer notes on the Q2 data release in China, and an outlook for Korea before tomorrow's BOK meeting. In addition, services output and machine orders point to the recent lift in economic momentum in Japan sustaining, and terms of trade data for Korea suggest very strong income growth again in Q2.

Strong exports but weaker upstream prices in China. In Taiwan, TSMC's June sales suggest the upcycle in exports isn't over yet. At the same time, rapid growth in GDP is boosting tax revenues.

Korean early trade data is always noisy, but today's numbers for the first 10 days of July don't show any significant change in underlying strength in exports and the trade surplus. Wage growth in Taiwan of around 3% likely means a floor for core CPI of 2%.

Corporate price data for Japan show the impact on the terms of trade of costlier oil imports continues to be offset by higher prices for chip exports. Nonetheless, rising import costs are pushing up PPI. In Taiwan, headline data show the gradual acceleration in underlying wage growth is continuing.

Lots today: no-change inflation data in China, a strong sakura regional report from the BOJ, Taiwan's foreign trade showing peaky exports but strong capital goods imports, and evidence that the strong rise in nominal GDP growth is boosting tax revenues in Korea.

The dip in Japan's CA surplus in May was not enough to alter the upwards trend, bank lending was strong in June, but the EW survey recovered only modestly in July. In Korea, the huge CA surplus rose further in May, but so did selling of domestic equities by foreigners.

Today, an update on the household sector in Japan with May wage and consumption data. Also, inflation data for Taiwan in June, and the Q1 flow of funds in Korea showing equities now account for 30% of household assets, up from 20% just a year ago.

Upstream prices in China fell at the end of June, showing the feed through from the decline in the global oil price. Data on Friday showed a modest positive output gap in Japan. FX reserves in Taiwan dropped moderately in June.

Some summary charts of a (much) longer chart pack summarising regional themes. In terms of the data flow, the S&P services PMI for Japan ticked up in June, but the consumer confidence survey earlier in the week was still soft. The S&P services PMI for China was once again puzzlingly strong.

The strength of corporate sentiment and prices in the BOJ Tankan is significant for the policy outlook. The rise in inflation in Korea slowed in June, but cost-push and demand-pull point to core inflation remaining firm. After withdrawing liquidity in recent months, the PBC changed course in June.

China's RatingDog mfg PMI continues to be much stronger than the official version. Korea's PMI fell, even though June exports rose again. In the Japan Tankan, sentiment was stronger and prices up across the broad. In Taiwan, the highlight was the strength of today's non-mfg PMI.

China's PMIs ticked up in June, but not by enough to dispel recent concerns about the cycle. In Japan, this year's pick-up in IP was sustained in May. The message from Korea's month-end data is a bit mixed, but there are some signs of the cycle broadening.

China industrial profits in May rose 20% YoY, boosted by upstream industries. Even so, overall profits have to still to break through the top of the post-2022 range. In Japan, retail sales were strong in May. Consumer confidence in Taiwan improved in June as price expectations fell.

A chart pack to summarise the longer note of earlier this week on the semi supercycle in Asia. Also, some more details on China's import growth in May, Tokyo CPI and 10-day export growth in Japan, the rise in Korean equity investment in the US and another strong monitoring index in Taiwan.

Taken at face value, China's latest trade volume data show that the rise in import demand of Q1 has already fully reversed. Flow of funds data in Japan indicate government debt outstanding at around 200% of GDP, but corporates remaining savers. The BSI survey in Korea was underwhelming.

Upstream prices were stable through the second 10 days of June in China, with falling oil prices offset by rising coal prices. Japan goods and services PPI inflation rose over 5% in May, indicating more pipeline pressures for CPI. IP growth remained at over 20% annualised in Taiwan last month.

Highlights of a longer note setting out a framework for thinking about the macro and market consequences of the semi boom. In terms of the data flow, Japan's flash PMI today was strong, Korean data showed strong profits and firm consumer confidence, and in Taiwan export orders rose and UE fell again

Assessed using import data, and China's cycle doesn't look nearly as weak as the picture painted by the bleak domestic FAI numbers. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June were strong again, pushing the trade surplus to another record high.

A new video laying out my argument for stabilisation in China. In terms of the data flow, Japan's inflation was modest in May, but that was because of subsidies, and further JPY depreciation will push up prices again. Korean PPI inflation accelerated, with the jump most obvious in services.

A quiet day, because no policy change from Taiwan's CBC, and no major releases elsewhere. China did release more detailed trade data for May, and in the context of renewed worries about growth, it is important that the broader import growth of this year has persisted.

Highlights of a longer note reviewing the cycle in Taiwan before the central bank's meeting tomorrow. In Japan, machine orders, exports and the Reuters Tankan all point to a strengthening manufacturing cycle on the back of global AI demand. Also, some charts on upstream prices in China.