East Asia Econ

The big releases today were Japan CPI and trade for October and November PMIs, and Korean October PPI and exports for the first 20 days of November. Also, a longer note on Korean capital flows, and an update of the detailed trade data for China shown in our interactive dashboard.

I've been busy today, so just a couple of quick comments, covering BOJ board member Koeda Junko's speech, and the further rise in Taiwan's current account surplus.

A quiet day for data today, with only machine orders in Japan and Korean IIP data for Q3. The IIP data are interesting, showing Korea's structural emergence as an international creditor. I would have expected that to put a ceiling on $KRW, but that impact really hasn't been obvious in recent months.

A longer piece looking at whether the rise in DRAM prices means Korea macro in 2026 will look like Taiwan macro in 2026. Also, household credit data in Korea (a bit slower), and more detailed October trade data for China, showing that while exports overall were weak, shipments of cars weren't.

The major releases today were Q3 GDP in Japan (weaker headline, but details ok) and fx settlement data in China (pointing to another month of capital inflows). Elsewhere, the big trend in Taiwan's FDI data remains the shift away from investing in China.

China's IP and services activity were stable in October, but were over-shadowed by another big drop in FAI. That can't be entirely dismissed, even though the data aren't so reliable. In Japan, services activity continues to trend up. In Korea, import prices are rising, but so are semi export prices.

Today's releases show Japan PPI turning up, and China credit growth slowing down. Also today, my latest data visualisation tool, mapping China's provincial data. The first data covered is FAI, showing the weakest province in September to be Guangdong, which would usually be regarded as a powerhouse.

The continued fall in interest rates in the real economy shown in yesterday's monetary policy report from the PBC, another strong sentiment survey in Japan, and some thoughts on Korea in light of yesterday's minutes of the October BOK meeting and today's labour market data.

Some strong numbers in Japan today, both the Economy Watchers survey – which provides a good guide to the direction of the cycle – and the current account surplus, which in September was the highest in at least 25 years. Also today, Korean export data for the first ten days of November.

In addition to yesterday's inflation data from China (stronger at the margin), today's update includes the summary of opinions from the BOJ's October meeting, September consumption data for Japan, and September wages for Taiwan.

Today's trade data for October were interesting, being stronger in Taiwan, but weaker in China. Taiwan's trade surplus surged again, but despite the narrowing in China, fx reserves rose in October. Also today, a note delving into an under-explored aspect of China's FAI data.

Today's data releases included Japan wages (messy, but some interesting details), Korea's current account surplus (big, but not helping the KRW), and Taiwan inflation (low compared with ROW, high compared with history). Also, a link to a slide pack summarising my views for the region.

The S&P services PMI for China remained better than the official version, while PBC's liquidity injections eased off in October. In Taiwan, fx reserves fell last month. That is consistent with the weakening of the currency, but contrasts with this year's remarkable growth in exports.

High-frequency data for China through end-October show the stability in upstream prices has persisted. The implication is PPI deflation isn't worsening. In Korea, October CPI inflation ticked up. That's probably temporary, but inflation has remained stickier than I'd expected.

China's S&P PMI softened in October, though still paints a better picture of the industrial sector than suggested by the official survey. Korea's PMI also weakened, and neither that nor the BOK's sentiment survey point to a big coming lift in exports.

Lots of data today, with the usual month-end releases for China, Japan and Korea. Also interesting were the analytical boxes in the BOJ's outlook report. Finally, an update on tariffs after yesterday's China-US talks. The conclusion: with the CNY depreciating, China doesn't look very disadvantaged.

Aside from Trump-Xi, the big event today was the BOJ meeting, though that was much more about continuity than change. In terms of data, Japan released trade data for the first 10 days of October. Korea's JOLTS data for September were weaker than the earlier labour market data had suggested likely.

Lots of sentiment surveys to discuss today: business confidence in Korea (better), consumer confidence in Japan (also better, even though inflation expectations remain high) and Q3 economy-wide surveys for China. Also, some details of China's 15th FYP, with some encouraging language on consumption.

Today's focus is Korea, with consumer confidence and GDP, and yesterday's loan officer survey. Elsewhere, the BOJ has published its own cuts of trade and CPI data. That includes "underlying inflation", though these days the bank itself seems to believe reality is more complicated.

The headlines are dominated by Trump's Asia trip. But there's also been lots of data released: industrial profits in China, services PPI in Japan, and consumer confidence in Taiwan. Export price data for China have also appeared, and echo the stability seen in the data for the rest of the region.

Japan CPI data showed headline near 3% and rising (inflation!), but core near 1% and falling (deflation!). Price data in China, by contrast, are stable, which is at odds with weak FAI. Finally, my updated trade mapper dashboard, which now covers autos and the battery and rare earth supply chains.

China's detailed monetary data for September are important, showing three positive trends. Elsewhere, the BOK didn't change policy, with just hints of becoming more positive. In Taiwan, IP and retail sales data for September continue to show the desynchronisation of the export and domestic cycles.

Lots of data to analyse today: exports in Japan, PPI in Korea, and export orders (released yesterday for Taiwan). Also, a longer piece taking stock of the Korean cycle and thinking about the BOK before tomorrow's monetary policy meeting.

Detailed Q3 GDP data for China don't provide much extra clarity. By contrast, yesterday's speech by Takata of the BOJ was a clear argument of why he thinks the bank needs to hike. In Korea, data for the first 20D of October show strong growth in exports of semiconductors, but not in anything else.

Little sign of change in today's China macro data. So, while areas like consumption aren't as weak as the headlines suggest, in activity data overall there's little sign of stabilisation, let alone recovery. I discussed some of the issues around China, as well as the region, in a podcast last week.