East Asia Econ

Services inflation had already bottomed at above 2%, and now it looks to be trending up again. As a big component of domestically-generated inflation, a rise in services inflation will make it much more difficult for core and thus overall inflation to stay at the BOK's 2% target.

The industrial cycle still lacks some of the momentum that we have been expecting, with the manufacturing PMIs easing back in July. However, the services PMI continues to hold up, suggesting overall activity in Taiwan remains strong.

It looks increasingly likely that Korean export growth has stalled. Exports grew by around 10% a year each month in the first half of 2024, and equities are pricing a similar rate of expansion in the second. That's not much when the domestic cycle remains weak.

After the August PMIs, there's less room to think the economy is continuing to muddle through. Until now, the weakness of the official mfg PMI has been offset by strength in the Caixin version. Today's fall closes that gap, suggesting that even sectoral bright spots are now dimming.

Although mainly as capex, exports are feeding into domestic demand in Taiwan in a way that isn't yet visible in Korea. Data today show three-quarters of the 5.1% YoY rise in GDP in Q2 coming from investment, with the remainder being consumption. The contribution from net exports turned negative.

The weakness of retail sales in China and Japan is well-known. Less appreciated is the same theme is true in Korea too, with today's June volume data dropping back to 2019 levels. Only in Taiwan do retail sales show any strength, which is important when Taiwan's export story is the strongest too.

The government's monthly Monitoring Indicator shows economic momentum is about as strong as it gets. That suggests another robust print for GDP when Q2 data are released tomorrow. It also keeps pressure on the central bank.

As has been the case for months, hard data show no big change in the labour market: UE is low, and employment high. But the BOJ seems to think the labour market is tighter than these data suggest, placing more weight on the bigger change shown by the Tankan.

At least through July, softening inflation has been making consumers feel happier. Likely, the recent typhoon damage will at least cause a pause. And while the price slowdown in theory helps the CBC, there's also the risk of aggregate demand remaining stronger for longer.

The CPB data do show that China's export price cycle is somewhat weaker than ROW. But the gap isn't that big, and the trend is similar. Particularly in the context of all the talk of over-capacity, the differences really don't look that big.

I don't think the BOJ is particularly data-dependent when it comes to headline monthly releases, which tend to be noisy. To the extent that today's July Tokyo CPI does matter, it suggests the underlying story remains unchanged.

The BOK business sentiment survey continues to point to two very different dynamics: an export recovery that looks increasingly solid, and a downturn in the domestic economy that shows no sign of bottoming.

Core services PPI inflation in June rose 3% YoY for the first time since the early 1990s. This offers evidence of the BOJ's hoped-for virtual wage-price dynamic, with the annual rise in services PPI being led by high labour cost sectors.

The collapse in property market activity is showing up in sharply lower prices for building materials: they've now fallen by 50% from the peak. But overall industrial prices haven't fallen in the same way, and continue to point to PPI inflation of around 0%.

Some lessening of confidence in June made sense given the fall in the JPY, but last month's sharp drop in the services PMI still seemed overdone. In July, it rebounded back to a strong level, with the commentary highlighting rising employment and capacity pressures.

Korea's data today completes the PPI picture for the region for June. It shows two things: that the inflation cycle has modestly picked up, and that most of China's PPI deflation reflects this bigger global cycle rather than local factors specific to China.

The recovery in export orders has lost some momentum in the 3M to June. Perhaps there is another leg-up to come, but today's data for Korean exports through the first 20D of July were also more solid than spectacular.

Headline export growth in the first 20D of July picked up, but that was because of an extra working day. Adjusting for that and exports grew 11.4%. That's decent, but not showing signs of acceleration.

Today's settlement data again suggest the currency has been coming under more pressure. That is also the implication of $CNY being at the top of the band, though strangely, none of this pressure is being seen in fx reserve data.

The relationship between TSMC sales and Taiwan's macro data isn't precise, but this week's further upgrading of the company's guidance continues to suggest 2024 will be a very strong year for exports, and thus also the economy.

June data show again that the fall in the exchange rate is boosting Japanese exports, but only via the translation effect into JPY. Export volumes aren't rising, with separate data showing little change in USD prices.

The PBC has been signalling unhappiness with falling rates. But as long as price inflation and money supply growth remain so weak, it is difficult to see why interest rates don't fall further still.

The June data are exaggerated by flows that are likely one-off, but still, Taiwan offers one of the clearest illustrations of how the direction of FDI is shifting away from China and towards the rest of Asia.

In the BOJ's Q2 survey, 65% of respondents saying they felt more positive cited higher incomes, an outcome helped by policy stimulus. But 90% of people saying they felt worse blamed higher prices, with low rates and the weak JPY also the result of policy.

Exports were flat in June. The big change was lower imports, and so a further rise in the trade surplus. Monday's data will likely show net exports once again boosted GDP growth in Q2.