East Asia Econ

Inflation fell sharply in Tokyo in April. The macro story should mean some of the decline is temporary, but it complicates the more bullish story the BOJ wants to tell

The NBS's series for 10-day industrial prices 10 suggests overall PPI has stopped falling, though with big differences depending on the commodity.

The drop in services PPI inflation since late 2023 has threatened the BOJ's wage-price narrative. It is important that March data suggest a floor.

Overall consumer confidence is at the average of the last 20 years. But by age, young people are more optimistic than usual, 40-60 year olds much less so.

Unusual domestic strength got Taiwan through the '23 export recession. Exports are now recovering, but consumption is still holding up. That's good news for the economy, bad news for the central bank.

The flash services PMI remained strong in April, and the mfg PMI lifted towards 50. S&P also reported the survey showing "intensifying price pressures". Japan is heating up.

There was a bit of pick-up in IC orders in March, but not by enough to lift total orders, which have yet to regain 2023 levels. The export recovery remains sluggish.

Relative to history, business sentiment in Japan is the strongest among most major economies in both mfg and non-mfg. That's only been seen once before.

Japan's export volumes to China are still almost 20% below the peak. Nor surprising, when the only strength in China's imports is primary goods and semi.

Korean exports are recovering. But at 5-10% YoY, growth doesn't yet look strong enough to offset weakness in the domestic economy.

There's quite a contrast between the sense of domestic manufacturing capex boom, and the lack of any rise in imports of capital goods outside of semi.

There are many reasons to expect a new wave of Chinese EVs to the world, but the last one arguably peaked in 2022, and another has yet to appear.

TSMC yesterday was less bullish on semi as a whole in 2024, but its own unchanged sales outlook still suggests a strong year for Taiwan exports

It still isn't even at 0.2% YoY, but rental CPI is now rising the fastest since the 1990s, which is pulling up imputed rent too. Together, they account for almost 20% of the basket.

It is remarkable, given the big mortgage rate cuts and everything else thrown at the property market, that buyer sentiment just gets worse and worse.

The cheap JPY isn't boosting Japan's merchandise exports, but it has helped with a sharp recovery in tourism, even though arrivals from China remain subdued.

The recent recovery in the mfg cycle has been underwhelming. One reason is its narrowness: sales at TSMC are up, but for the rest of the listed are flat.

The shunto is important for regular workers, but part-time workers are now also getting decent pay rises, a real sign that the labour market is tightening.

The cheap JPY is boosting Japan's tourist inflows, but there continue to be no signs of the currency helping merchandise exports.

China doesn't release detailed GDP by expenditure data, but the available snippets show Q1 outperformance was due to net exports.

Consumer sentiment does remain low in China, but it is encouraging that income growth has picked up, while the savings rate is coming down.

There's just no floor for property. Starts fell again in March and are now 65% below the 2020 peak, and barely above the low of late 2008.

There's a growing divergence between ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and that shows the contrast between weak property and strong manufacturing activity.

Official data show property price deflation isn't worsening. Private measures suggest the same thing, though anecdotes suggest actual market conditions are much weaker

Korean data today continue the clear turn in regional import prices of recent months. This will matter for inflation, even in China.