Paid Members Public China – strong headline, weaker details The PMIs improved in January, and our FCI indicates a further rise to 52 from here. That said, the details today weren't particularly strong. They can be regarded as backward-looking, but we continue to think that policy hasn't moved enough to ensure recovery continues beyond the next few months. Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public China – end of the deflation scare Inflation ticked up in December, and it is fairly easy to predict that China's deflationary scare is over. It is more difficult yet to say what sort of inflation comes in its place. The ending of zero covid means higher inflation, but also erodes the usefulness of the usual leading indicators. Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – worse than it looks If there was a surprise with the Q4 data, it was that the official measure of GDP managed to grow. The details were weak, with only household savings rising strongly. Those savings provide a platform for a rebound in 2023, though not if households think their income growth has permanently slowed. Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public China – end of the deflation scare Inflation ticked up in December, and it is fairly easy to predict that China's deflationary scare is over. It is more difficult yet to say what sort of inflation comes in its place. The ending of zero covid means higher inflation, but also erodes the usefulness of the usual leading indicators. Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – property floor Official December data point to property prices bottoming out. That isn't unexpected, given the ending of zero covid and other signs that property prices have picked up. Cuts in mortgage rates suggest there could be quite a big bounce in prices, but that needs household confidence to recover. Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public China – end of the deflation scare Inflation ticked up in December, and it is fairly easy to predict that China's deflationary scare is over. It is more difficult yet to say what sort of inflation comes in its place. The ending of zero covid means higher inflation, but also erodes the usefulness of the usual leading indicators. Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – not much change After a big fall in November, the trade data were less eventful in December, in MoM terms hardly changing at all. That means YoY growth is still deteriorating, and leading indicators point to that continuing through at least Q1. Paid Members Public China – end of the deflation scare Inflation ticked up in December, and it is fairly easy to predict that China's deflationary scare is over. It is more difficult yet to say what sort of inflation comes in its place. The ending of zero covid means higher inflation, but also erodes the usefulness of the usual leading indicators. Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – end of the deflation scare Inflation ticked up in December, and it is fairly easy to predict that China's deflationary scare is over. It is more difficult yet to say what sort of inflation comes in its place. The ending of zero covid means higher inflation, but also erodes the usefulness of the usual leading indicators. Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – weak credit Credit and monetary data remain soft. In itself this isn't vital for markets, which can think the ending of zero covid matters more than anything else. But monetary data, particularly the willingness of households to embrace financial risk, will affect the sustainability of any upturn. Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public The China Diviner Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still think changes in substance, as well as style, are needed, in particular material support for the household sector. Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – unsound footing The PMIs fell again in December, signalling that GDP probably contracted YoY in Q4. That is backward looking, and there will be recovery as China exits covid. But the weakness in consumer income confidence shown in the PBC's Q4 survey shows full recovery out of the covid trough isn't yet likely. Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – another bad month For the third time in as many years, China's GDP likely contracted in November. With zero covid ending and property policy reversing, there will be recovery through 1H23. But for a sustained pick-up, more policy help is needed for households. Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – taking stock Zero covid has come to a sudden end. That, and property loosening, will ensure economic recovery in 2023. But for next year to prove a real turning point - and justify a steepening of the curve - the government needs to announce tangible policies that boost household incomes and spending. Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – not much money Money and credit in November was soft. That probably reflects zero covid. With that now being reversed, credit should bounce - and with interest rates low, that bounce could potentially be big. That though is a risk case, offset by the depressed level of liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – backward looking Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference. Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – ouch Exports took a big step down in November. The out turn was probably worsened by China's covid problems last month, but tech exports have now fallen for four consecutive months, and leading indicators for China's exports point to more worsening to come. Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – weaker again The PMIs suggest renewed weakening of the economy in November. That perhaps explains the accelerated pace of property easing. That loosening is an important development, but as long as China remains mired in covid difficulties, the outlook for the economy will remain very difficult. Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
Paid Members Public China – third time...unlucky? The population is starting to chafe against lockdowns, but isn't prepared for opening. The compromise path forward is rising covid cases signalling more eventual openness, but lockdowns continuing to be used to try to slow the spread of the virus. That's a very messy path for financial markets.
