Public Post China – policies to boost consumption The second of two videos on consumption, an issue that is even more important given the economic damage that will be inflicted on China by the tariffs. It is impossible to imagine Beijing supporting western-style consumerism. But there is still a way for economic policy to boost consumer spending.
Public Post China – five consumption myths The first of two videos on consumption. This one looks at recent trends, arguing spending has been stronger than often realised. It still isn't high enough, especially given the huge shock from Trump's tariffs. So the second discusses policies that would boost consumption further.
Public Post China – three post-tariff themes Yesterday's tariffs are close to a worse case scenario for China, and are a big negative shock when the cycle is already weak. Three things strike me as important in what happens next, both for China's economy, and for its global influence: consumption, imports, and the currency.
China – not undergoing Japanification In recent months, I've been doing quite a lot of work on Japanification. I summarised the arguments in this opinion piece for The Wire China.
Public Post China – Japanification scorecard: part 2 A follow-up to the video a couple of weeks ago. That looked at demand-side factors. This delves into the supply-side and factors behind the "deflationary mindset". In these areas, China today looks even more different from Japan in the 1990s.
Public Post China – Japanification scorecard: part 1 A video discussing why China isn't following Japan's path. This is the first part, looking at the seven demand-side factors that caused Japan's problems, and how China compares. The second video will discuss supply-side issues and the "deflationary mindset".
Public Post China - PMI details suggest a floor The PMIs continue to suggest that, overall, there was no lasting improvement in the cycle after the September policy push. There are though some signs that things aren't getting worse any more, with both the construction PMI and employment indicators suggesting a floor.
Public Post China – on a Japanification scorecard, only getting 30% With the BOJ's review of post-1990s Japan, we have an inventory for Japanification. Using this to assess China today, what stands out is not the similarities, but the differences. All told, on my scoring China isn't graduating to Japanification, achieving a mark of only 30%.
