East Asia Econ

China – nominal pick-up

Most important for markets is today's Q4 data is the pick-up in the deflator and nominal GDP, which external trends suggest can run further. In terms of the details, the data show two big discrepancies: collapsing FAI v industrial stability, and falling retail sales v rising consumption share of GDP

Paul Cavey

Jan 19, 2026 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

Today's big update was Q4 GDP data for China, showing a nominal pick-up, but (as might be expected) conflicting details. In Japan, Q4 consumer confidence improved, while data through November showed a further acceleration in services output.

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Last week, next week

Last week's most important release was China's USD100bn fx settlement data. Capital inflows will boost money supply. A stronger CNY should also help support regional currencies. The impact is overshadowed by politics in Japan, but should be more powerful in Korea and Taiwan given the semi boom.

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East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.