Daily

The BOJ didn't say much new today, but the authorities overall did make more of an attempt to put a lid on recent market volatility. In Korea, both consumer confidence and house price expectations remain strong. Taiwan retail sales slowed into end 2025, but IP took another step up.

Exports and the BOJ's senior loan officer survey in Japan; lending standards and Q4 GDP in Korea; and Taiwan's labour market data for December.

Three updates today: details of the surge in China's auto exports at end-2025; further signs of improvement in Japan's government finances (at least that's true before the election pledges); and strengthening Korean export data.

Detailed Q4 GDP data for China show construction (especially) and manufacturing falling further as a proportion of output, but services rising. In Korea, PPI inflation in December remained at 1.9% YoY. Taiwan export orders crept up in last month, another sign that activity remains resilient.

Today's big update was Q4 GDP data for China, showing a nominal pick-up, but (as might be expected) conflicting details. In Japan, Q4 consumer confidence improved, while data through November showed a further acceleration in services output.

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.

Lots to discuss today: domestic and foreign money flows in China; PPI and export prices in Japan; the BOK's January monetary policy meeting; and the read-through for Taiwan's economy from TSMC's bullish 2026 outlook.

China's exports ended 2025 with a bang, with auto shipments surging. Import demand is much weaker, but did at least trend up last year. Also today, some charts on bank lending in Japan, which is strong, and a cycle review of Korea before tomorrow's BOK meeting.

Some charts showing how Korea is structurally converging with Japan and Taiwan. One area of convergence is the current account surplus, which across the region is large and growing, now up to 6% of GDP in Japan. Other data today in Japan reiterate the improvement in cyclical momentum in late 2025.

A longer note summarising cycle and structure and arguing that risk-reward is moving in favour of Asian currencies. Against that framework, today's export data for the first 10 days of January in Korea were soft. But Taiwan wage data for November tick the right boxes.

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.

More charts than usual on Japan today, with the Q3 sakura report and output gap from the BOJ, November wages, and December consumer confidence. Also, Q3 flow of funds data for Korea, which offers another perspective on the outflows that have been weighing on the KRW.