Daily

Japan CPI data showed headline near 3% and rising (inflation!), but core near 1% and falling (deflation!). Price data in China, by contrast, are stable, which is at odds with weak FAI. Finally, my updated trade mapper dashboard, which now covers autos and the battery and rare earth supply chains.

China's detailed monetary data for September are important, showing three positive trends. Elsewhere, the BOK didn't change policy, with just hints of becoming more positive. In Taiwan, IP and retail sales data for September continue to show the desynchronisation of the export and domestic cycles.

Lots of data to analyse today: exports in Japan, PPI in Korea, and export orders (released yesterday for Taiwan). Also, a longer piece taking stock of the Korean cycle and thinking about the BOK before tomorrow's monetary policy meeting.

Detailed Q3 GDP data for China don't provide much extra clarity. By contrast, yesterday's speech by Takata of the BOJ was a clear argument of why he thinks the bank needs to hike. In Korea, data for the first 20D of October show strong growth in exports of semiconductors, but not in anything else.

Little sign of change in today's China macro data. So, while areas like consumption aren't as weak as the headlines suggest, in activity data overall there's little sign of stabilisation, let alone recovery. I discussed some of the issues around China, as well as the region, in a podcast last week.

Korea's labour market looks better, though sustainable recovery likely needs stronger business confidence. Other data suggest an end to the sharp price falls for Korean auto exports to the US. Cars are unusual: in neither Korea nor the other economies have overall export prices been as volatile.

Three things important for markets: yesterday's monetary data from China, today's speech by BOJ Board member Naoki Tamura, and TSMC's Q3 earnings report. In addition, Japan released service-sector data and machine orders for August.

A couple of notes on China today, one covering today's inflation release, and the other a slide pack making the case for higher rates. Elsewhere, Taiwan released FDI data for September. Outflows have eased in recent months, but the clear shift away from investing in China is persisting.

An update on pensions in Japan, which are being cut in real terms. Also, wage growth in Taiwan, which is accelerating. The pick-up is mild, but is still important, showing that the near-deflation experience of 2000-2020 isn't being repeated.

China full-month exports for September (still strong), and Korean exports for the first 10 days of October (including only 3.5 working days, so too few to reach strong conclusions). Also, the new monthly summary of PBC liquidity operations, showing steady balance sheet expansion.

Two releases from the BOJ today, one showing PPI inflation remaining firm, and the other, its consumer confidence survey, indicating that the firmness of inflation continues to erode household sentiment. Also today, an update on China's inflation in advance of next week's releases for September.

The only data release today was Taiwan trade for September, which showed exports finally gave back some of the amazing strength seen this year. Also, some charts on how global commodity prices affect the region.