East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.

Paul Cavey

Jan 9, 2026 • 3 min read

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Taiwan – trade surplus back to 1980s levels

Even with data today showing a dip in exports in December, Taiwan's trade surplus last year reached the sort of sky-high levels last seen before the big TWD appreciation of the 1980s. Barring a real dislocation in AI hardware demand, underlying pressure for renewed appreciation will grow in 2026.

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China – inflation up, for now

The second-derivative improvement in inflation is continuing, and should be seen in a better deflator when the Q4 GDP data are released later this month. However, there's not yet enough to think the trend can persist beyond Q126. One factor that could derail the improvement would be a stronger CNY.

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Korea –outflows still strong in November

November BOP data show another big current account surplus – and more big outflows into offshore equities. We can't be sure that outflows have yet peaked. But with the KRW cheap, semi exports gaining momentum and the government taking KRW stabilisation measures, risk around the currency are shifting