East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.

Paul Cavey

Jan 16, 2026 • 2 min read

Subscribers Only

China – domestic so-so, external go-go

Some of the signs of domestic stabilisation I'd been tracking in 2025 faded into year-end. However, they didn't disappear entirely. China is also starting to benefit from the global tailwinds of weaker USD and rising commodity prices, creating upside risks for China's nominal cycle.

Public Post

East Asia Today

Lots to discuss today: domestic and foreign money flows in China; PPI and export prices in Japan; the BOK's January monetary policy meeting; and the read-through for Taiwan's economy from TSMC's bullish 2026 outlook.

Subscribers Only

China – foreign flows stronger than domestic

China's release today of December data for money, credit and fx settlement tell three stories: domestic savings outflows have lost momentum, credit ex-government is looking a bit stronger, and capital inflows are really picking up. If right, the last dynamic is the most important for markets.