East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Lots of cycle updates today, with all the month-end data for Japan and Korea, as well as Q4 GDP data for Taiwan, which was another blow-out. China's main data release today showed service exports rising, though not nearly as quickly as exports of goods.

Paul Cavey

Jan 30, 2026 • 3 min read

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Japan – falling inflation = higher consumption?

With policy efforts reducing headline inflation, the bullish case for Japan is once again a rise in real wages that pushes up consumer spending and aggregate demand. The consumer confidence survey points to just that scenario, but it isn't in the hard data yet, with December retail sales still soft.

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Korea – still all about exports

Today's data releases show the domestic economy bottoming out, but not yet growing much. The upside risk rests on 1) exports, which the BOK in its last official forecast thought would only grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2) capex, with Samsung and SK Hynix this week pledging big increases.

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East Asia Today

Japan consumer confidence and export data show a further lessening of the two big negative shocks of 2025. Consumer confidence has bounced in Korea too, but that isn't based on a strengthening labour market. Also today, an announcement: subscribers can now access all our data via an API.