East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

With most of the region still on holiday, today's daily focuses on today's export release from Japan. The big rise in January, led by shipments to China, will largely be the result of holiday front-loading. But the general direction is for exports and manufacturing to be a bit stronger in 2026.

Paul Cavey

Feb 18, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

December services activity in Japan dipped. But that is likely temporary: service sector sentiment remains strong, and falling China tourism has been offset by more visitors from Korea. Details of Taiwan's Q4 GDP release shows the terms of trade boosting real national income per capita by 15% in Q4.

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East Asia Today

Today's headline Q4 GDP data for Japan were weak, but the details were better, and the 2026 outlook remains better. The weekend's high-frequency price data for China – the last release before the holiday – indicates the lessening of PPI deflation continued through the first 10 days of February.

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Japan – GDP details better than headlines

Growth in Q4 was only +0.1% QoQ, but that was partly because of a running down of inventories. Underlying demand was better, and given the strength of business and consumer confidence, the outlook for growth in 2026 is more positive.