East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

The big dynamic in Asia in early 2026 has been the strength of the semi cycle. That can be seen in today's Japan February export prices, and Korea March 10-day March exports. That provides some offset to the rise in energy prices, though not enough to matter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Paul Cavey

Mar 11, 2026 • 2 min read

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

Jan-Feb trade data for China were strong, but still distorted by LNY. Q4 GDP in Japan was revised up, boosted by rising private domestic demand. Korean GDP contracted in Q4, but an improving ToT boosted real incomes. TSMC sales dipped in February, but equities don't yet point to a big downturn.

Subscribers Only

China – semiconductors lift exports

Exports in YoY and SA terms were strong in Jan-Feb. That looks too good to be true, and I'd expect new year distortions won't totally disappear until March. Still, one trend that looks real is the rise in chip exports, as China benefits from the same semi super cycle lifting the rest of the region.

Subscribers Only

Japan – solid GDP and wage growth

The backdrop to the latest oil price surge is different to that of 2022. Then, wages were barely rising. This time, wage growth is at least 2%, and not slowing. With cycle momentum picking up too, there is more of a risk that a Middle East war (if it is short) further raises nominal momentum.