East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Today's quarterly business sentiment survey from the Cabinet Office and MOF in Japan shows the same bounce in manufacturing confidence that has been visible in the different monthly surveys. Korean job openings for January were weak, but that could reflect this year's rebasing of the data.

Paul Cavey

Mar 12, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

The big dynamic in Asia in early 2026 has been the strength of the semi cycle. That can be seen in today's Japan February export prices, and Korea March 10-day March exports. That provides some offset to the rise in energy prices, though not enough to matter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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East Asia Today

Jan-Feb trade data for China were strong, but still distorted by LNY. Q4 GDP in Japan was revised up, boosted by rising private domestic demand. Korean GDP contracted in Q4, but an improving ToT boosted real incomes. TSMC sales dipped in February, but equities don't yet point to a big downturn.

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China – semiconductors lift exports

Exports in YoY and SA terms were strong in Jan-Feb. That looks too good to be true, and I'd expect new year distortions won't totally disappear until March. Still, one trend that looks real is the rise in chip exports, as China benefits from the same semi super cycle lifting the rest of the region.