East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

The main releases today were Korea and Taiwan PMIs. In terms of prices, the surveys show clear inflation pressure. For growth, the message is more mixed; firmer PMIs in part reflect supply disruptions. But exports still look strong, and in Taiwan, the non-mfg PMI has risen too.

Paul Cavey

May 4, 2026 • 2 min read

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Last week, next week

As usual, a recap of research over the last week but today, no refresh of market themes. I am now away for a few days, so updates will re-commence when I am back on May 4th.

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East Asia Today

Three longer pieces today: on the regional chip cycle, Japan in the run-up to next week's BOJ meeting, and a video discussing two macro puzzles in Korea. Also, charts summarising today's three data releases: upstream prices in China, and in Japan, CPI and services PPI.

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Japan – can the BOJ afford to wait?

The BOJ seems to be messaging that it will stay on hold next week. That seems risky to me, given that while the Iran War might dent growth, it is highly likely to raise inflation. A BOJ that is further perceived as too slow will put pressure on the $JPY to pass through the artificial barrier of 160.