East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note setting out a framework for thinking about the macro and market consequences of the semi boom. In terms of the data flow, Japan's flash PMI today was strong, Korean data showed strong profits and firm consumer confidence, and in Taiwan export orders rose and UE fell again

Paul Cavey

Jun 23, 2026 • 3 min read

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Region – commodity boom or BS?

A longer note putting the chip supercycle in the context of commodity price surges, dismissing concerns about the narrowness of growth, and exploring the different macro dynamics in Korea versus Taiwan. One is a commodity boom, the other is indeed BS, but both suggest real exchange rate appreciation

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East Asia Today

Assessed using import data, and China's cycle doesn't look nearly as weak as the picture painted by the bleak domestic FAI numbers. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June were strong again, pushing the trade surplus to another record high.

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Last week, next week

China's cycle is weak, but I'm not yet convinced it is getting worse. Japan's cycle will now be improving, but the BOJ needs to show that it can keep up. The BOK's hawkish turn can go further still if the KRW remains so weak. I think inflation risks in Taiwan are broader than judged by the CBC.