East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Upstream prices were stable through the second 10 days of June in China, with falling oil prices offset by rising coal prices. Japan goods and services PPI inflation rose over 5% in May, indicating more pipeline pressures for CPI. IP growth remained at over 20% annualised in Taiwan last month.

Paul Cavey

Jun 24, 2026 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note setting out a framework for thinking about the macro and market consequences of the semi boom. In terms of the data flow, Japan's flash PMI today was strong, Korean data showed strong profits and firm consumer confidence, and in Taiwan export orders rose and UE fell again

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Region – commodity boom or BS?

A longer note putting the chip supercycle in the context of commodity price surges, dismissing concerns about the narrowness of growth, and exploring the different macro dynamics in Korea versus Taiwan. One is a commodity boom, the other is indeed BS, but both suggest real exchange rate appreciation

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East Asia Today

Assessed using import data, and China's cycle doesn't look nearly as weak as the picture painted by the bleak domestic FAI numbers. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June were strong again, pushing the trade surplus to another record high.