East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Korean export growth for the first 20 days of July accelerated again to over 60%, led by semiconductors, which in turn produced a further widening of the trade surplus. In Taiwan, export orders in June also grew near 60% YoY, and rose in level terms to a new all-time high.

Paul Cavey

Jul 21, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

Detailed data for June show the huge impact that global demand for AI hardware is having on China's trade data. In Taiwan, export volumes softened in June and Q2, which is important, though the strength of TSMC's June sales and Q2 results commentary don't suggest the cycle is coming to an end yet.

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Weekly

China's combination of recovering output, weak expenditure, and mixed monetary isn't great, but also doesn't suggest a big change in macro policy. I think it unlikely that Japan's bid for repatriation works without more BOJ normalisation. Korea and Taiwan cycles remain strong, implying rate hikes.

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East Asia Today

A Japan outlook piece, arguing that the BOJ is likely to be more hawkish than the market expects given an improving economic outlook, and assuming no new negative shock. Also, results of Japan's senior loan officer survey, and data in China showing continued strong capital inflows in June.