East Asia Today

The highlight today was the Q3 GDP release in China. Along with an update of all the usual cycle charts, I've also updated my guide to China's consumption data. In Japan, growth in services activity eased back in August, with a rare contraction in consumer-related services activity like eating out.

Paul Cavey

Oct 19, 2026 • 3 min read

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China – enough for 2026, but not 2027

From the perspective of a government that wants to meet a 2026 growth target without having to shift policy, the September data are encouraging. But the 2027 outlook for the domestic economy is looking more challenging. That will become more visible if global demand and price trends change.

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East Asia in Four Charts

Highlights of last week's indicators: China's import shortfall, loose financial conditions in Japan, rising export prices in Korea, and more evidence of labour market tightness in Taiwan.

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Last week, next week

With regional macro dependent on continuation of the US AI build-out, the equity sell-off last week matters. That said, there are still complications: TSMC still sounds very bullish, and while for bad economies, it isn't clear that an end of the AI cycle would be so negative for currencies.