East Asia Today

A longer note on the prospects for the TWD in the light of the equity sell-off and doubts over the future of the AI cycle. As has been the case for a few months, today's wage data in Japan were mixed. In addition, some charts on today's market moves.

Paul Cavey

Nov 6, 2026 • 2 min read

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Taiwan – how much TWD selling?

The surge in the Taiex of recent years means potential for big foreigner selling of TWD. But, inflows haven't been big, equities won't all be sold, and CBC has ability to fight back. The bear case is Taiwan recession versus US resilience, though even then, "fundamentals" for TWD would be strong.

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East Asia Today

Highlights of my monthly slide pack covering the region, and a note on October's 2%-ish inflation print in Taiwan. If the market is right, we might now have seen the best of the AI cycle, but Korea's September CA data show just how big that cycle was. The S&P services PMI for China was soft.

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Taiwan – inflation still over 2%

CPI is being affected by cross-currents including very high upstream price inflation, government subsidies and holidays. The underlying picture is inflation of around 2%, which by Taiwan standards is high. I think an economic slowdown is needed to prevent it moving higher.