East Asia Today

There were a number of releases in Japan today, so today's note includes a review of those. In China, exports dipped in October, and while that is probably noise, auto exports have flattened out since June. In Taiwan, October was another strong month for TSMC.

Paul Cavey

Nov 10, 2026 • 2 min read

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Japan – cycle update

I think the curve should flatten, as the BOJ continues to hike because of decent growth and strong inflation, while the longer-end is dampened by medium-term headwinds for inflation and a repatriation flow. These I think remain the themes, though the message from today's releases is mixed.

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East Asia Today

Today's PPI inflation data in China were strong. Taiwan's export data for October were even stronger. In Japan, the BOJ's proxy for PCE weakened in Q3, but the underlying trend, particularly in per capita terms, remains firm.

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Taiwan – another surge in exports

October export growth was the strongest in 20 years. That doesn't tell us what happens next. If 2025 is any guide, even the slowdown suggested by equities might not happen. What the data do say is that AI tech demand remained extremely strong in October, leaving Taiwan with an enormous trade surplus