East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Korea's labour market looks better, though sustainable recovery likely needs stronger business confidence. Other data suggest an end to the sharp price falls for Korean auto exports to the US. Cars are unusual: in neither Korea nor the other economies have overall export prices been as volatile.

Paul Cavey

Oct 17, 2025 • 2 min read

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Korea – employment perks up

Employment bounced in September, providing more evidence of cycle bottoming. That shouldn't matter much for BOK thinking: in July it raised employment forecasts, and has expected recovery into 2026. I am sceptical that recovery runs far, but there are upside risks if business sentiment improves.

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East Asia Today

Three things important for markets: yesterday's monetary data from China, today's speech by BOJ Board member Naoki Tamura, and TSMC's Q3 earnings report. In addition, Japan released service-sector data and machine orders for August.

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China – incrementally encouraging

Yesterday's monetary and credit data for September weren't bullish, but I do think they were incrementally encouraging: excluding CGBs, credit issuance and the credit impulse ticked up; the firming of M1 growth has continued; and there is more evidence of a floor in the M1:M2 ratio.