East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Little sign of change in today's China macro data. So, while areas like consumption aren't as weak as the headlines suggest, in activity data overall there's little sign of stabilisation, let alone recovery. I discussed some of the issues around China, as well as the region, in a podcast last week.

Paul Cavey

Oct 20, 2025 • 2 min read

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Region – podcast

I really enjoyed doing this podcast with Bilal Hafeez from Micro Hive. It was a great chance to get into a lot of the structural themes across the region that I have been working on.

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China – no change in underlying trends

Property is weak, manufacturing FAI has slowed, consumer spending on goods is soft, and price deflation isn't lifting. However, services consumption is better, and output of both goods and services is growing by more than 5%. The government likely still thinks the economy is muddling through.

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Last week, next week

My China theme – signs of stabilisation in the underlying cycle – seems anti-consensus, and, frankly, likely won't be supported by today's data. Elsewhere, the key issues this week will be what hints Takaichi's new government gives about the BOJ, and what confidence the BOK has for the 2026 outlook.