East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Lots of sentiment surveys to discuss today: business confidence in Korea (better), consumer confidence in Japan (also better, even though inflation expectations remain high) and Q3 economy-wide surveys for China. Also, some details of China's 15th FYP, with some encouraging language on consumption.

Paul Cavey

Oct 29, 2025 • 3 min read

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China – shifts in financing, but not quite what is wanted

The PBC's quarterly surveys cover firms and banks too, but I think the household version is most interesting. In Q3, household sentiment is weak, but mixed. Price expectations are very soft. Some of the savings data support the idea that China's economy is near a structural turning point.

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Korea – business sentiment turning

After last month's puzzling fall, business sentiment bounced in October. With the diffusion across sectors still rising, it seems reasonable to expect a further rise in sentiment towards neutral. But there still are headwinds to recovery: construction and real estate, exports, and the labour market.

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East Asia Today

Today's focus is Korea, with consumer confidence and GDP, and yesterday's loan officer survey. Elsewhere, the BOJ has published its own cuts of trade and CPI data. That includes "underlying inflation", though these days the bank itself seems to believe reality is more complicated.